# France shorten from 1.88 to 1.78 to win at Italy, and the whole move came between Monday evening and Tuesday morning *BettingBeast had France at 1.88 at 21:22 CET on 5 November and still 1.85 at 17:12 CET on Monday. By 00:23 CET on Tuesday it was 1.80, and 1.78 at 06:23 CET. Italy drifted from 4.30 to 4.77. Kick-off Thursday 20:45.* Markets · Published 03:00 ET, Nov 10, 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/ca/markets/france-shorten-from-1-88-to-1-78-to-win-at-italy-with-the-move-overnight-on-monday/) By Markets desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Italy vs France, 14:45 ET, Nov 12, 2026 (2026-11-12T19:45:00.000Z). Price source → https://bettingbeast.com/odds/?match=2026-11-12%2C425%2C1004&utm_source=matchnews&utm_medium=referral Odds at BettingBeast, correct at 00:23 ET, Nov 10, 2026. Prices move. Percentages are the chance the price implies, before the bookmaker's margin. 18+ Home 4.77, Draw 4.11, Away 1.78. On Monday morning this site wrote that the price for Italy v France had barely moved in four days. That stopped being true on Monday night. BettingBeast's feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, had France at 1.88 to win at San Siro on Thursday when it first carried the match at 21:22 CET on Thursday 5 November, and 1.85 at 17:12 CET on Monday. The next capture, at 00:23 CET on Tuesday, had France at 1.80. At 06:23 CET on Tuesday, the capture the card on this page shows, France were 1.78, Italy 4.77 and the draw 4.11. ## What the move means Decimal odds can be turned into a chance, called the implied probability: divide one by the price. At 1.88 France were given about a 53% chance of winning by the price. At 1.78 the price gives them about a 56%. That is a rise of three percentage points, which is the line this site draws for a move worth an article of its own: below it, a drift belongs in a sentence of the match preview; at it or above it, the move is the story. The three percentages do not add up to 100, because the bookmaker's margin is built into every price; the direction and the size are the point. Italy's price lengthened from 4.30 at the first capture to 4.77 on Tuesday morning, from about a 23% chance to about 21%. The draw went from 3.87 to 4.11, from about 26% to about 24%. So France took a point of chance from Italy and a point and a half from the draw. ## When it happened The feed shows the price flat for four days and then one step. France were 1.88 on Thursday night, 1.88 on Saturday morning, 1.84 on Sunday morning, 1.88 again at 05:23 CET on Monday and 1.85 at 17:12 CET on Monday, all within a point of chance of each other. The odds job then did not read the feed again until 00:23 CET on Tuesday, when France were 1.80 and Italy 4.75. The price has edged to 1.78 since. So the move happened somewhere in the seven hours between 17:12 CET on Monday and 00:23 CET on Tuesday, and this site cannot be more exact than that. ## What did not move, and what flickered The goals line, the number a bet on "over" or "under" is measured against, is 2.5 goals, as it has been since Thursday night. At 06:23 CET on Tuesday over 2.5 was 1.66 and under was 2.38, against 1.65 and 2.39 at the first capture with a line: no change. The feed briefly listed 3.5 as its main line in the 00:23 CET and 01:22 CET captures and went back to 2.5 after that; the feed picks whichever line has prices closest to even money, so a line that appears for two captures and leaves is the feed choosing, not the market changing its mind. The handicap, the goal start given to one side, tells a similar story. Italy had a start of half a goal in every capture from Thursday to Monday, with France at about 1.88 on the other side. Between 00:23 CET and 03:22 CET on Tuesday the main line was a full goal, with Italy at 1.68 and France at 2.39; at 04:22 CET it was back to half a goal, with Italy at 2.27 and France at 1.80, and France were 1.78 on that line by 06:23 CET. What has changed on the fixed half-goal line is France's price, from 1.88 to 1.78, which is the same move as in the win market. ## The public reasons No public reason found. The news from the two camps on Monday arrived before the move, not during it. Italy's coach Roberto Mancini gave his press conference at Coverciano at 13:30 CET, according to the Italian federation's website, which quotes him saying that Italy have "an obligation to look for and call up young players to get to know them directly". The federation's note on the squad lists 32 players after Federico Gatti of Juventus was added on Sunday evening and Matteo Palma of Udinese replaced the injured Gianluca Mancini of Roma. Corriere dello Sport reported on 5 November that the original 31 included four players who had never been called up before, among them Como's Cassano, born in 2009, and Parma's Lontani, born in 2008. Mancini also said, in the federation's account, that Italy are already sure of finishing no lower than third in the group, that the aim is the top two, and that beating France on Thursday may not be enough on its own if Türkiye beat Belgium earlier that evening. Nothing this site could read from an allowed source about France's camp on Monday explains a price moving in France's favour. French outlets reported a change to Zinedine Zidane's squad on Monday afternoon; this site could not read those reports on a source it is allowed to use, and a withdrawal would in any case point the other way. The honest sentence is that the market made France a little more likely to win on Monday night, and nobody has said why in public. ## The game the price is about France lead Group 1 of League A, the Nations League's top division, with 10 points from four games; Italy have seven, Belgium six and Türkiye none, counted from UEFA's results. A French win in Milan settles the group with a round to spare. Italy need a win to go level, and even then, as Mancini said, Thursday's early game between Türkiye and Belgium at 18:00 CET decides how much it is worth. The match is at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza at 20:45 CET on Thursday 12 November; Corriere dello Sport reported on 5 November that 57,000 tickets had been issued. Monday's preview on this site has the squads as far as they were known then, and the card on this page carries the latest price with its capture time, with the chart underneath drawing every capture since Thursday. The price still makes France the favourite, the side given the better chance, and now by a little more than it did a day ago. It says nothing about who wins; it says how the chances looked at 06:23 CET on Tuesday. ## Sources 1. BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-series.json and data/odds-latest.json, capture 2026-11-10T05:23Z) (BettingBeast via Match News) https://matchnews.news/data/odds-series.json - Read 01:30 ET, Nov 10, 2026 2. Si apre il raduno a Coverciano. Mancini: 'Abbiamo l'obbligo di convocare ragazzi giovani, si sta creando un bel gruppo' (FIGC) https://www.figc.it/it/nazionali/news/si-apre-il-raduno-a-coverciano-mancini-abbiamo-lobbligo-di-convocare-ragazzi-giovani-si-sta-creando-un-bel-gruppo-aeruxekj - Read 01:12 ET, Nov 10, 2026 3. Prende il via il raduno a Coverciano, nel gruppo azzurro c'è anche Federico Gatti (FIGC) https://www.figc.it/it/nazionali/news/prende-il-via-il-raduno-a-coverciano-nel-gruppo-azzurro-ce-anche-federico-gatti-v67a7qsf - Read 01:14 ET, Nov 10, 2026 4. Italia, i convocati di Mancini: ecco Lontani, Liberali e Cissé. La lista completa (Corriere dello Sport) https://www.corrieredellosport.it/news/calcio/italia/2026/11/05-152396954/italia_i_convocati_di_mancini_ecco_lontani_liberali_e_cisse_la_lista_completa - Read 01:08 ET, Nov 10, 2026 --- 19+ (18+ in Quebec, Alberta and Manitoba). Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Match News is a football news site published by Checkraise Ltd. Every odds link on this site goes to BettingBeast. Articles are written with the help of an AI system and checked against the sources they cite; the responsible editor is named on every article.