# How to read a football price: a plain guide using this weekend's games *For readers who see 3.06, 3.55 and 2.50 next to Liverpool v Arsenal and do not know what they mean. Decimal odds, rough probabilities, the margin, the goals line and the handicap, with real prices from this weekend.* Features · Published 19:30 CET, 30 Oct 2026 · Updated 14:55 CET, 31 Oct 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/features/how-to-read-a-football-price-a-plain-guide-using-this-weekends-games/) By Features desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Every match article on this site carries a card with three numbers on it. For Liverpool v Arsenal on Sunday, the card shows 3.06 for Liverpool, 3.55 for the draw and 2.50 for Arsenal, captured at 13:54 CET on Friday. This guide explains what those numbers mean, how to turn them into something you can picture, and what the other lines on a match page are. It uses real prices from this weekend, all from BettingBeast's feed at that one time. Prices move, so by the time you read this they may be different; the point is the method, not the numbers. ## What a decimal price is A decimal price is the amount you would get back for each 1 unit staked, including the stake itself. Arsenal at 2.50 means that 1 unit on an Arsenal win returns 2.50 if they win: your 1 back plus 1.50. Liverpool at 3.06 returns 3.06 for each 1, so 2.06 on top. The draw at 3.55 returns 3.55. The lower the number, the more likely the market thinks that result is. Arsenal's 2.50 is the lowest of the three, so the market makes them the favourites, even away from home. That alone tells you something about how the two seasons have gone: Arsenal have 21 points from eight games, Liverpool 15. Decimal odds are the standard in most of Europe. British fractional odds (such as 6/4) and American odds (such as +150) say the same thing in a different way; 6/4 and +150 are both 2.50 in decimal. ## Turning a price into a rough probability The useful trick is to divide 1 by the price. That gives you the probability the price implies. Liverpool at 3.06: 1 divided by 3.06 is 0.327, so about 33%. The draw at 3.55: 1 divided by 3.55 is 0.282, so about 28%. Arsenal at 2.50: 1 divided by 2.50 is 0.400, so 40%. So the market, at 13:54 CET on Friday, saw Sunday's game roughly as 40% Arsenal, 33% Liverpool, 28% draw. That is a close game with a slight away lean, which matches what the table says. One caution. These are the market's probabilities, meaning the view of the people pricing the game and the money that has come in. They are not facts about Sunday. A 40% favourite loses, by that very number, three times in five. ## Why the three numbers add up to more than a whole Add the three percentages above: 33 plus 28 plus 40 is 101, a little more than 100. That extra is the margin, the amount built into the prices so that whoever offers them keeps a small cut over time. On Liverpool v Arsenal the margin is about 0.7 of a percentage point, which is small. The size of the margin varies by competition and by how much money a match attracts; big games tend to have small margins. If you want the probabilities to add up to exactly 100, divide each one by the total. For Liverpool v Arsenal that gives about 32% Liverpool, 28% draw and 40% Arsenal, which barely changes anything here, but it matters more on a match with a wider margin. ## A lopsided example: Bayern v Dortmund Saturday's Bayern v Dortmund game at the Allianz Arena, 18:30 CET, shows what a heavy favourite looks like. At 13:54 CET on Friday BettingBeast had Bayern at 1.37, the draw at 6.38 and Dortmund at 8.61. Divide 1 by each: Bayern about 73%, the draw about 16%, Dortmund about 12%. The sum is a touch over 100 again. A price of 1.37 means that 1 unit returns only 0.37 on top of the stake, which is the market's way of saying it expects Bayern to win most of the time. Dortmund at 8.61 is a long price, but 12% is not nothing: about one such game in eight ends with the outsider winning. Compare that with Milan v Inter on Saturday night, where Milan were 3.71, the draw 3.87 and Inter 2.07. That is about 27%, 26% and 48%. Inter are favourites, but the game is far more open than Bayern's. ## The goals line Below the three main prices, most match pages show a goals line, often written as "over/under 2.5". This is a bet on how many goals the match has in total, not on who wins. The line is set at a half number so there can be no tie: a game with two goals is under 2.5, a game with three goals is over. For Liverpool v Arsenal the line was 2.5, with over at 1.92 and under at 2.04. The over price being lower means the market leans slightly towards three or more goals. For Bayern v Dortmund the line was set at 3.5, with over at 1.69 and under at 2.40: the market expects a lot of goals, and even at a higher line it leans over. When a goals line is set at 3.5 rather than 2.5, that by itself tells you the market expects an open game. ## The handicap The other common line is the handicap, sometimes called the Asian handicap. It gives one team a head start in goals before the match begins, to make a lopsided game level. For Chelsea v Manchester United on Saturday the handicap was Chelsea minus 1, at 2.56, with United plus 1 at 1.60. Read it like this: take Chelsea's final score and subtract one goal. If Chelsea still have more goals, the Chelsea side of the handicap wins. If the adjusted score is level, stakes are returned, and if United are ahead after the adjustment, their side wins. A handicap of 0, as on Liverpool v Arsenal (Liverpool 2.18, Arsenal 1.80), simply returns the stake if the match is drawn. Handicaps are useful as a reading tool even if you never use them, because the size of the handicap says how far apart the market thinks two teams are. Chelsea minus 1 says "a one-goal win is roughly the expected gap." Bayern's handicap against Dortmund was minus 2, which says a two-goal home win was the market's middle expectation. ## What moves a price Prices change from the moment they are published to kick-off. The main reasons are team news (a star ruled out moves a price a lot), the weight of money on one side, and the result of an earlier game that changes what a match means for the table. Our Markets desk writes about moves when they happen, with the time of each price, and the card on each match article carries the capture time so you always know how old the number is. ## Plain summary A decimal price is what 1 unit returns, stake included. Divide 1 by the price to get a rough probability. The three results add up to a little more than 100 because of the margin. A lower price means the market thinks that result is more likely, not that it is certain. The goals line is about total goals, the handicap gives one side a head start, and both tell you how open or how lopsided the market thinks a game is. None of it is a prediction, and none of it is advice. It is a way of reading what the market expects, which is often, but not always, close to what happens. ## Sources 1. BettingBeast odds feed snapshot, 30 October 2026 (BettingBeast) https://bettingbeast.com/odds/ - Read 13:54 CET, 30 Oct 2026 2. All 380 fixtures for the 2026/27 Premier League season (Premier League) https://www.premierleague.com/en/news/4675097/all-380-fixtures-for-202627-premier-league-season - Read 17:20 CET, 30 Oct 2026 --- 18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. 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