# Napoli drift from 1.94 to 2.30 to beat Lazio, and most of the move came on Sunday night, not after Porto *BettingBeast had Napoli at 1.94 to beat the leaders at 13:22 CET on Sunday, 2.15 by 23:20 CET after the defeat at Juventus, and 2.30 at 07:22 CET on Thursday. Lazio shortened from 3.53 to 3.22. Kick-off Sunday 12:30 CET.* Markets · Published 07:35 CET, 5 Nov 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/markets/napoli-drift-from-1-94-to-2-30-before-lazio-most-of-it-on-sunday-night/) By Markets desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Napoli v Lazio, 12:30 CET, 8 Nov 2026 (2026-11-08T11:30:00.000Z). Live odds → https://bettingbeast.com/odds/?match=2026-11-08%2C706%2C278&utm_source=matchnews&utm_medium=referral Odds at BettingBeast, correct at 07:22 CET, 5 Nov 2026. Prices move. Percentages are the chance the price implies, before the bookmaker's margin. 18+ Home 2.3, Draw 3.77, Away 3.22. Napoli's price to beat Lazio at home on Sunday has lengthened from 1.94 to 2.30 in four days, and the order in which it moved is the interesting part. BettingBeast's feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, first carried the match at 13:22 CET on Sunday 1 November, with Napoli at 1.94. By 23:20 CET the same night, after Napoli had lost 2-0 at Juventus, Napoli were 2.15. The price then crept out through Monday and Tuesday to 2.31 by 19:23 CET on Tuesday 3 November. It was 2.32 at 18:22 CET on Wednesday, before Napoli kicked off at Porto, and after they had lost that game 4-1 it came in a little, to 2.27 at 22:22 CET, and settled at 2.30 by 07:22 CET on Thursday, the capture the card on this page shows. ## What the move means Decimal odds can be turned into a chance, called the implied probability: divide one by the price. At 1.94, Napoli were given about a 52% chance of winning by the price. At 2.30 the price gives them about a 44% chance. That is a drop of eight percentage points, far more than the three points this site treats as a move worth writing about. The percentages do not add up to 100 across the three outcomes, because the bookmaker's margin is built into every price; this is about the direction and the size, not the exact number. Five of those eight points arrived in the ten hours between the Sunday lunchtime capture and the capture late on Sunday night, which is when the Juventus result landed. The drift from 2.15 to 2.32 across Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday was slower and smaller, about three and a half points over three days. The step after the Porto defeat went the other way, from 2.32 to 2.27, by one percentage point, before the price settled back at 2.30. In plain terms: the market marked Napoli down for losing at Juventus, kept marking them down a little through the week, and treated the 4-1 in Portugal as already priced in. ## What moved with it, and what did not Lazio's price to win in Naples shortened from 3.53 at the first capture to 3.22 on Thursday morning, from a 28% chance to a 31% chance, by the price. The draw moved from 3.93 to 3.77, from about 25% to about 27%. So Napoli's lost chance was shared between Lazio and the draw, with a little more going to Lazio. The goals line, the number of goals a bet on "over" or "under" is measured against, has been 2.5 goals in every capture since Sunday. At 07:22 CET on Thursday it was 1.78 for over and 2.22 for under, against 1.79 and 2.01 at the first capture, so the price for a low-scoring game has lengthened a little while the line itself has not changed. The handicap, the goal start given to one side to even the contest, has sat between "level" and "Napoli minus half a goal" all week. The feed picks one of those two as its main line depending on which has prices closest to even money, so the swapping between them is a feature of how the feed is built, not the market changing its mind. ## The public reasons The timing of the biggest step matches the result at Juventus, where Napoli lost 2-0 on Sunday evening and finished with ten men; that game has its own report on this site. The slower drift through the week coincided with Napoli travelling to Porto with a long absentee list, which our Wednesday morning piece on the Champions League's missing players described from UEFA's list. Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Højlund, both listed as doubtful before that game, started it, according to Claro Sports' minute-by-minute account, and Rafa Marín was sent off in the 88th minute. A red card in the Champions League carries no ban in Serie A; Marianucci's second yellow card at Juventus does, under the league's usual one-match rule, so he is expected to miss Sunday. No source we are allowed to use has published Napoli's injury position for Sunday, so this piece does not guess at it. ## The game the price is about Napoli are eighth in Serie A on 14 points from ten games, after four wins, two draws and four defeats. Lazio, coached by Gennaro Gattuso since the summer, lead the table on 28 points, nine wins and a draw from ten, three points clear of Inter; they beat Cagliari 2-1 on Monday night with a late header from Andrea Pinamonti, and that game also has a report on this site. Napoli have now lost three of their four Champions League games and are 27th in that table. The two sides meet at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona at 12:30 CET on Sunday 8 November, the early kick-off of Serie A's eleventh round. Inter host Como, who scored nine at Lens on Wednesday, at 18:00 CET the same day, and Fiorentina host Juventus at 20:45 CET. The card on this page carries the latest price from the feed, with its capture time, and the chart under it draws every capture since Sunday. The price still makes Napoli the favourite, the side given the better chance, even after two away defeats in four days. What it does not say is who wins; it says only how the chances looked at 07:22 CET on Thursday. ## Sources 1. BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-series.json and data/odds-latest.json) (BettingBeast via Match News) https://matchnews.news/data/odds-series.json - Read 07:28 CET, 5 Nov 2026 2. Serie A and Champions League standings, results and fixtures (licensed feed, generated 2026-11-05T05:23Z, in data/latest.json) (football-data.org via Match News) https://www.football-data.org/ - Read 06:40 CET, 5 Nov 2026 3. Porto vs Napoli en vivo: Champions League 2026, minuto a minuto (Claro Sports) https://www.clarosports.com/futbol/champions-league/porto-vs-napoli-en-vivo-champions-league-2026-minuto-a-minuto-goles-y-resultado-de-la-fase-de-liga-hoy-4-de-noviembre/ - Read 07:25 CET, 5 Nov 2026 4. Gennaro Gattuso es nuevo entrenador de la Lazio (Excélsior) https://www.excelsior.com.mx/deportes/gennaro-gattuso-es-nuevo-entrenador-lazio-serie - Read 07:25 CET, 5 Nov 2026 --- 18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Match News is a football news site published by Checkraise Ltd. Every odds link on this site goes to BettingBeast. Articles are written with the help of an AI system and checked against the sources they cite; the responsible editor is named on every article.