# Netherlands drift from 1.45 to 1.55 to beat Greece, most of it on Monday afternoon as Van Dijk and Brobbey drop out *BettingBeast had the Netherlands at 1.45 at 21:23 CET on Friday 6 November and 1.55 at 06:23 CET on Tuesday. The handicap fell from a goal and a half to one goal at 11:22 CET on Monday and stayed. Kick-off Friday 20:45.* Markets · Published 08:40 CET, 10 Nov 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/markets/netherlands-drift-from-1-45-to-1-55-to-beat-greece-after-van-dijk-and-brobbey-withdraw/) By Markets desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Netherlands v Greece, 20:45 CET, 13 Nov 2026 (2026-11-13T19:45:00.000Z). Live odds → https://bettingbeast.com/odds/?match=2026-11-13%2C422%2C415&utm_source=matchnews&utm_medium=referral Odds at BettingBeast, correct at 06:23 CET, 10 Nov 2026. Prices move. Percentages are the chance the price implies, before the bookmaker's margin. 18+ Home 1.55, Draw 4.81, Away 6.23. The Netherlands' price to beat Greece in Amsterdam on Friday has lengthened from 1.45 to 1.55 in four days, and most of the move came in a few hours on Monday afternoon. BettingBeast's feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, first carried the match at 21:23 CET on Friday 6 November with the Netherlands at 1.45. The price sat between 1.45 and 1.49 all weekend. At 11:22 CET on Monday it was 1.47. By 13:26 CET it was 1.52, by 14:29 CET 1.55, and by 15:26 CET 1.56. It has been 1.54 or 1.55 in every capture since, including the 06:23 CET capture on Tuesday that the card on this page shows. ## What the move means Decimal odds can be turned into a chance, called the implied probability: divide one by the price. At 1.45 the Netherlands were given about a 69% chance of winning by the price. At 1.55 the price gives them about a 65% chance. That is a drop of between four and five percentage points, more than the three points this site treats as a move worth writing about. The three percentages never add up to 100, because the bookmaker's margin is built into every price; the point here is the direction and the size. Almost all of it arrived between the 11:22 CET and 15:26 CET captures on Monday. Before that the price had drifted by less than a point of chance in three days. Since then it has not moved. ## What moved with it The handicap moved first. A handicap gives one side a goal start before kick-off, and the bet is on the result after the start is added. From Friday night to Monday morning the feed's main line gave Greece a start of a goal and a half, with the Netherlands at about 2.20 to win by two or more and Greece at about 1.71. At 11:22 CET on Monday the line dropped to one goal, and it has been one goal in every capture since, 18 hours and more. At 06:23 CET on Tuesday the Netherlands were 1.87 to win by two or more, or have the stake returned if they win by exactly one, and Greece were 2.05 on the other side. A line that moves and then stays moved is a real change, not the feed switching between two neighbouring lines, which it does when the prices on them are close to even money. The goals line, the number a bet on "over" or "under" is measured against, changed too, later. It was 3.5 goals from Friday until Monday evening, with under 3.5 at about 1.56. At 00:23 CET on Tuesday it became 2.5, and it was still 2.5 at 06:23 CET, with over at 1.62 and under at 2.41. So the market now expects fewer goals than it did on Friday as well as a smaller margin. Greece's price to win in Amsterdam shortened from 7.01 to 6.23, from about a 14% chance to about 16%. The draw barely moved, 4.97 to 4.81, from 20% to 21%. The Netherlands' lost chance went mostly to Greece, a little to the draw. ## The public reasons The Netherlands have lost their captain. Liverpool's website carried a statement from the Dutch national team on Monday saying Virgil van Dijk had withdrawn from the squad for the games against Greece and Germany because he "did not return fit" from Liverpool's win at Crystal Palace on Sunday. NOS, the Dutch public broadcaster, reported at 17:47 CET on Monday that the Sunderland striker Brian Brobbey had also left the squad, that neither player was fit enough, and that no replacements had been called up, leaving 23 players. The squad gathered in Zeist on Monday. The timing is worth being careful about. The price moved between about 11:30 CET and 15:30 CET; the NOS report is stamped 17:47 CET, and Liverpool's page does not show a time. Both players had played at the weekend and the coach, Xavi Hernández, held a press conference in Zeist on Monday. Whether the fitness doubts were known before the announcement, this site cannot say from the sources it is allowed to read. What can be said is that the move and the news point the same way, and that the handicap line dropped before either report was published. ## The game the price is about The KNVB's squad announcement on 6 November gave the group table after four rounds: the Netherlands and Greece both on eight points, Germany on five, Serbia fourth. So Friday's game at the Johan Cruijff ArenA, kick-off 20:45 CET, is first against first in Group 2 of League A, the Nations League's top division, with one round left after it. The Netherlands then go to Germany in Berlin on Monday 16 November, and Greece host Serbia in Volos the same night, according to PAOK's note on its players' call-ups. Greece are coached by Ivan Jovanović, the same note says. Germany, under Jürgen Klopp, play Serbia in Belgrade on Friday and need a top-two finish to reach the quarter-finals in March. Xavi's 25, named on 6 November, included Van Dijk, Denzel Dumfries, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo, Tijjani Reijnders, Micky van de Ven and Jurriën Timber, with Mark Flekken and Bart Verbruggen among the goalkeepers. With Van Dijk and Brobbey out it is 23. The official teams are due at about 19:45 CET on Friday; the card on this page carries the latest price with its capture time, and the chart under it draws every capture since Friday night. The price still makes the Netherlands a clear favourite, the side given the better chance. It says nothing about who wins; it says how the chances looked at 06:23 CET on Tuesday. ## Sources 1. BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-series.json and data/odds-latest.json, capture 2026-11-10T05:23Z) (BettingBeast via Match News) https://matchnews.news/data/odds-series.json - Read 07:30 CET, 10 Nov 2026 2. Virgil van Dijk withdraws from Netherlands squad (Liverpool FC) https://www.liverpoolfc.com/news/virgil-van-dijk-withdraws-from-netherlands-squad - Read 08:00 CET, 10 Nov 2026 3. Aanvoerder Van Dijk en Brobbey haken af bij Nederlands elftal (NOS) https://nos.nl/artikel/2638755-aanvoerder-van-dijk-en-brobbey-haken-af-bij-nederlands-elftal - Read 07:18 CET, 10 Nov 2026 4. Oranje met 25 spelers naar slotduels groepsfase Nations League (KNVB) https://www.onsoranje.nl/nieuws/nederlands-elftal-mannen/82811/oranje-met-25-spelers-naar-slotduels-groepsfase-nations-league - Read 07:20 CET, 10 Nov 2026 5. International call-ups (PAOK FC) https://www.paokfc.gr/en/news/20261109-oi-kliseis-twn-diethnwn-mas - Read 07:23 CET, 10 Nov 2026 --- 18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Match News is a football news site published by Checkraise Ltd. Every odds link on this site goes to BettingBeast. 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