What the market got wrong this weekend: Brighton, Stuttgart and Milan beat the closing prices
Of 36 weekend games in our leagues, the team the closing price favoured won 25. The misses were big: a 56% chance lost at the Etihad, a 54% chance lost 4-2 in Leverkusen, and Inter lost a derby they were priced to win.
Every Monday this column puts the weekend’s results next to the closing prices, the last prices BettingBeast’s feed showed before each game kicked off. A closing price is the market’s final opinion. Turned into a percentage, by dividing 1 by the price, it is the chance the market gave each result. The point of the exercise is the gap between that chance and what happened, not hindsight about who should have known.
The numbers below are from Saturday and Sunday in the five leagues we cover. Friday’s games are left out because the feed captured only one price for each of them, so there is no proper closing line. Every price is rounded to two decimals and carries the time of its last capture in CET.
The weekend in one number
We have closing prices for 36 games across the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, the Bundesliga and Ligue 1 this weekend. In 25 of them the team the market favoured, meaning the side with the shortest price, won. In 11 it did not: seven favourites lost outright and four games were drawn. That is roughly what you would expect. A favourite priced at 2.00 is a 50% chance by the price, so favourites are supposed to lose quite often. What makes a weekend interesting is which ones lost, and by how much the price had trusted them.
Sixteen of the 36 games went over the goals line, the total the market splits each match at, and 20 stayed under it. Again, close to even, which is what the line is designed to produce.
Manchester City 0-1 Brighton: a 56% chance that lost at home
The closing price at 15:42 CET on Saturday had City at 1.78, a 56% chance, with the draw at 4.33 (23%) and Brighton at 4.72 (21%). Brighton won with Yasin Ayari’s 11th-minute goal, as we reported on Sunday. The price had already moved against City during the week: on Friday afternoon they were 1.66, a 60% chance, so the market had cooled on them before kick-off, three days after the two sides’ cup shootout. It had not cooled nearly enough. A 21% chance landing is the biggest single miss of the weekend by implied probability.
Leverkusen 2-4 Stuttgart: six goals where the line said three or fewer
At 11:30 CET on Saturday Leverkusen were 1.84 to win at home, a 54% chance, with Stuttgart at 4.63, a 22% chance. Stuttgart led 2-0 after 22 minutes and won 4-2, with two goals from Ermedin Demirović, according to the league’s match report, which also records that it was Leverkusen’s first home defeat of the season. The goals line was 3.5, with over at 1.83 and under at 2.13, so the market leaned slightly towards four goals or more. It got six. Our preview on Saturday had noted both clubs’ long injury lists; the price treated Leverkusen’s as the lesser problem.
Milan 3-1 Inter: the derby went to the side priced third
This was the closest three-way price of the weekend. At 18:20 CET on Saturday Inter were 2.13 to win, a 47% chance; the draw was 3.65, a 27% chance; and Milan were 3.77, also about 27%. Milan won 3-1, ending Inter’s unbeaten start. A 27% chance is not a shock in any single game. It is worth noting because of what it did to the table: Lazio, who then beat Cagliari on Sunday, are now three points clear of Inter at the top of Serie A.
Bayern 2-2 Dortmund: the 16% result
Bayern closed at 1.37 at 18:20 CET, a 73% chance, with the draw at 6.23, a 16% chance. The handicap line, which gives one team a head start in goals so the two sides are closer to even, had Dortmund at +1.5, meaning the market expected Bayern to win by two. It finished 2-2 after Harry Kane hit the bar from a penalty. The result has already moved another price: Bayern’s chance of winning at Atlético on Tuesday fell by about seven percentage points that evening, as our Markets piece on Sunday described, and the drift has continued since.
The smaller misses
Coventry closed at 3.12, a 32% chance, and beat Sunderland 3-1. Werder Bremen, at 2.89 (35%), beat Hoffenheim 2-0, though that price was captured on Friday afternoon and never updated, so it is the weakest closing line in this set. Getafe, at 3.76 (27%) at 13:23 CET on Sunday, beat Sevilla 3-1 in a game whose goals line was set at 1.5, the lowest of the weekend; it produced four. Valencia, at 3.49 (29%) at 18:22 CET, won 1-0 at Elche. Four games went to the draw against the price: Hull 2-2 Ipswich, Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham, Union Berlin 1-1 Köln and the Bayern game above. In none of those was the draw priced above a 28% chance.
What the market got right
The big favourites did what big favourites usually do. Barcelona, at 1.13 (89%), won 6-1; Real Madrid, at 1.23 (81%), won 3-0 at Racing; Como, at 1.32 (76%), beat Venezia 1-0; Lazio, at 1.53 (65%), beat Cagliari 2-1; Frankfurt, at 1.53 (65%), beat Hamburg 3-1. The two tightest big games went with the slight favourite: Arsenal, at 2.45 (41%) at 17:23 CET on Sunday, won 1-0 at Liverpool, and Juventus, at 2.24 (45%) at 20:22 CET, beat Napoli 2-0.
One price moved the right way before kick-off and still looked odd afterwards. Chelsea opened at 1.89 to beat Manchester United on Friday afternoon, a 53% chance, and closed at 2.13 on Saturday at 11:30 CET, a 47% chance. The market grew less sure of Chelsea over the night. Chelsea won 2-0, after a red card for Lisandro Martínez. The drift was not wrong in the sense that a 47% chance happened; it was simply a move away from the side that won, and we found no public reason for it at the time.
What this does and does not mean
Eleven misses in 36 games is a normal weekend. The market is a set of prices, not a forecast of each result, and it is judged over hundreds of games, not one Saturday. What this column can say is where the biggest gaps were: at the Etihad, in Leverkusen and in the Milan derby. The weekly futures note on the title, the top four and relegation does not appear today because the feed we read does not currently carry those markets.
18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Prices quoted were correct at the time stated and move. This article is information and opinion, not advice; no outcome is certain. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Help: Gambling Therapy.
- BettingBeast closing prices, recorded by this site's odds job (data/closing-lines/2026-10.json and 2026-11.json), BettingBeast via Match News. Read 07:00 CET, 2 Nov 2026.
- Football scores and fixtures, Saturday 31 October 2026, Sky Sports. Read 07:05 CET, 2 Nov 2026.
- Sunday's results and the league tables (licensed feed, generated 2026-11-02T05:23Z, in data/latest.json), football-data.org via Match News. Read 06:40 CET, 2 Nov 2026.
- Ermedin Demirović bags brace as VfB Stuttgart shine at Bayer Leverkusen, Bundesliga. Read 07:10 CET, 2 Nov 2026.
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