# Italy v France at San Siro on Thursday: France three points clear, Zidane without Saliba and Dembélé, price barely moved *Kick-off 20:45 CET on Thursday 12 November. France lead Group 1 of the Nations League's top division with 10 points from four games; Italy have seven and need a win to keep the group open. The sides drew 1-1 in October.* Matches · Published 08:00 CET, 9 Nov 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/matches/italy-v-france-thursday-france-three-clear-zidane-without-saliba-and-dembele/) By Matches desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Italy v France, 20:45 CET, 12 Nov 2026 (2026-11-12T19:45:00.000Z). Live odds → https://bettingbeast.com/odds/?match=2026-11-12%2C425%2C1004&utm_source=matchnews&utm_medium=referral Odds at BettingBeast, correct at 07:24 CET, 9 Nov 2026. Prices move. Percentages are the chance the price implies, before the bookmaker's margin. 18+ Home 4.4, Draw 3.99, Away 1.88. Italy play France at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milan on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 20:45 CET, in the fifth of six rounds of the Nations League group stage. France lead Group 1 of League A, the competition's top division, with 10 points from four games. Italy have seven. A French win would settle the group with a round to spare; an Italian win would put the two sides level at the top with one game left. ## Why it matters The Nations League is UEFA's competition for national teams, played in the international windows between club seasons. In League A the top two in each group of four go on to the quarter-finals next year, the side that finishes bottom drops down a division, and third place goes into a play-off to stay up. The FA's note on England's position, that a draw against Croatia is enough to reach the quarter-finals from second place, confirms the format for this season. Group 1 is France, Italy, Belgium and Türkiye. UEFA's results page gives the story so far: France beat Türkiye 1-0 and Belgium 1-0 in September, drew 1-1 with Italy at home on 2 October and beat Belgium 4-1 on 5 October. Italy lost 0-2 at home to Belgium in their first game, then won 4-1 in Türkiye, drew in France and beat Türkiye 3-1. Counted up from those results, France have 10 points, Italy seven, Belgium six and Türkiye none. So France win the group on Thursday with a victory in Milan, and a draw would also be enough to make sure of a top-two place. Italy's position is less secure. A win puts them level with France on 10 points, with the head-to-head record in their favour after the draw in Paris. A draw takes them to eight, and whether that keeps them second depends on Belgium's result against Türkiye earlier in the evening. A defeat, if Belgium win that game, drops Italy to third before they go to Belgium on Sunday 15 November, and third place means the play-off, not the quarter-finals. ## The week around it Thursday's other League A games are Türkiye v Belgium at 18:00 CET, Czechia v Spain at 20:45 CET and England v Croatia at Wembley at 20:45 CET. England, according to the FA's squad announcement, are second in their group behind Spain and need a draw or better against Croatia to reach the knockout rounds; the FA says finishing top would take two wins and a better goal difference than Spain, who England visit on Sunday. Thomas Tuchel's 25 includes first call-ups for Jobe Bellingham and Josh King, the return of Declan Rice and Ben White, and Harry Kane, who would become England's most-capped men's player if he plays. "We are desperate to win the game against Croatia and then have Spain after that," Tuchel said in the FA's interview. He also confirmed that Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended for Thursday. Friday brings Netherlands v Greece and Serbia v Germany; Saturday Norway v Wales and Portugal v Denmark. All of this week's League A games are in BettingBeast's feed, and the cards on this site carry the latest prices. ## Team news France's squad is known. Zinedine Zidane named 23 players for the two games, as ESPN reported on 6 November, and the injury list is long: William Saliba, Jules Koundé, Maxence Lacroix, Manu Koné, Ousmane Dembélé and Esteban Lepaul are all out, and Maghnes Akliouche withdrew with a calf injury, with Paris FC's uncapped Pablo Pagis called up in his place. ESPN says Zidane described Pagis as having a "different profile" he wanted to assess. Kylian Mbappé, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga of Real Madrid, Michael Olise and Dayot Upamecano of Bayern, and Marcus Thuram of Inter are in the group, as are Mike Maignan and Adrien Rabiot of Milan, who will be playing in their own stadium. Italy's squad for the window was not on a source this site could read on Monday morning, so no Italian names are given here. ESPN and Sky Sport Italia both report that Roberto Mancini is back as Italy's coach, having returned before the September games. No confirmed team news for either side as of 07:30 CET on Monday; the official teams are due at about 19:30 CET on Thursday. ## How to read the market The market has barely moved. At 07:24 CET on Monday BettingBeast's feed had France at 1.88 to win, a 53% chance by the price, the draw at 3.99, a 25% chance, and Italy at 4.40, a 23% chance. When the feed first carried the match, on Thursday 5 November at 21:22 CET, the three prices were 1.88, 3.87 and 4.30, so the only change in four days is that both the draw and Italy have drifted by a few hundredths, less than a point of implied chance each. The handicap line gives Italy half a goal's start, at 2.12, against France at 1.88, and the goals line is 2.5, with over at 1.62 and under at 2.38, so the market leans towards three goals or more. ## What to watch The October meeting finished 1-1, and France have conceded only twice in four group games. Their defence is still the question: Saliba, Koundé, Lacroix and Koné are all missing, so Zidane's back line in Milan will not be the one that kept those numbers. The attack is not short: Mbappé has scored in seven games in a row for Real Madrid, the club's own report said on Saturday, and Pagis, who is uncapped, is the only newcomer. Italy's selection is the other: whoever Mancini picks, Italy need a win rather than a draw to keep the group alive, which tends to make the home side the one that has to come forward. ## Sources 1. 2026/27 UEFA Nations League: All the league phase fixtures and results (UEFA) https://www.uefa.com/uefanationsleague/news/02a2-1fea18abbcbc-456e846509e7-1000--2026-27-uefa-nations-league-all-the-league-phase-fixtures-a/ - Read 07:05 CET, 9 Nov 2026 2. Nations League, Italia-Francia si gioca a Milano il 12 novembre (Sky Sport Italia) https://sport.sky.it/calcio/nations-league/2026/07/24/nations-league-italia-francia-milano - Read 07:20 CET, 9 Nov 2026 3. Zidane calls up Paris FC's Pablo Pagis amid France injury crunch (ESPN) https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/50400920/zidane-calls-paris-fc-pablo-pagis-france-injuries - Read 07:35 CET, 9 Nov 2026 4. England senior men's squad announcement for Croatia and Spain games (The FA) https://www.englandfootball.com/articles/2026/Nov/06/england-senior-mens-squad-announcement-for-croatia-spain-games-20261106 - Read 07:05 CET, 9 Nov 2026 5. Tuchel: 'The door should always be open for the pathway' (The FA) https://www.englandfootball.com/articles/2026/Nov/06/thomas-tuchel-interview-november-squad-announcement-20260611 - Read 07:05 CET, 9 Nov 2026 6. BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-latest.json, capture 2026-11-09T06:24Z, and data/odds-series.json) (BettingBeast via Match News) https://matchnews.news/data/odds-latest.json - Read 07:30 CET, 9 Nov 2026 --- 18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Match News is a football news site published by Checkraise Ltd. Every odds link on this site goes to BettingBeast. 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