# What the market got wrong this weekend: City and Chelsea lost as favourites, and 30 of 48 games went under the line *Of 48 weekend games in our leagues, the team the closing price favoured won 29, lost eight and drew 11. The biggest miss was a 60% chance losing 3-1 at Nottingham Forest; the goals surprise was eight at Old Trafford.* Markets · Published 07:30 WAT, 9 Nov 2026 · Match News (https://matchnews.news/ng/markets/what-the-market-got-wrong-city-and-chelsea-lose-as-favourites-monaco-held/) By Markets desk · Reviewed by Fredrik Jurek Every Monday this column puts the weekend's results next to the closing prices, the last prices BettingBeast's feed showed before each game kicked off. A closing price is the market's final opinion. Turned into a percentage, by dividing 100 by the price, it is the chance the market gave each result. The point is the gap between that chance and what happened, not hindsight about who should have known. The numbers below cover Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the five leagues we cover, 48 games in all. Last week Friday's games were left out because the feed had captured only one price for each; this week every Friday game had at least two captures, so they are in. Every price is rounded to two decimals and carries the time of its last capture in CET. ## The weekend in one number In 29 of the 48 games the team the market favoured, meaning the side with the shorter price, won. In eight the favourite lost outright, and 11 games were drawn. That is a normal weekend. A favourite priced at 2.00 is a 50% chance by the price, so favourites are supposed to lose quite often. The goals line, the total the market splits each match at, was beaten in 18 games and held in 30. That is the lopsided number of the weekend: in the five leagues, more than three games in five finished under the line. Twelve of the 48 games had one goal or none. ## Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City: a 60% chance that lost At 18:22 CET on Saturday City were 1.67 to win at the City Ground, a 60% chance, with the draw at 4.40 (23%) and Forest at 5.62 (18%). Forest won 3-1 with two goals from Liam Delap, as Sky Sports' report records, and City have now lost three league games in a row. The price had been moving towards Forest all week, from 4.81 a week earlier, but an 18% chance landing is still the biggest single miss of the weekend by implied chance. Our Saturday report has the detail. ## Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea: the bottom side beat a 46% chance Chelsea closed at 2.17 at 14:14 CET on Sunday, a 46% chance; Sunderland, bottom of the table and seven games without a win, were 3.59, a 28% chance. Sunderland won with a Le Fée penalty, and the goals line of 2.5 held: under was 2.08 at the close. This price had barely moved all week, so the market was not surprised into it. It was simply wrong on the day, which is what a 28% chance does roughly one time in four. ## Le Mans 1-1 Monaco: the strongest favourite that failed to win Monaco were 1.77 at 16:23 CET, a 57% chance, at a Le Mans side that had won one league game all season; Le Mans were 6.08, a 16% chance, and the draw 4.19, a 24% chance. It finished 1-1 after Monaco led at half-time. Monaco were the shortest-priced side of the weekend not to win. Every favourite priced shorter than them, from Arsenal at 1.17 to Freiburg at 1.49, did win. ## Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa: eight goals where the line said four The goals line at Old Trafford was 3.5 at 17:22 CET on Sunday, with over at 2.32 and under at 1.77, so the market leaned towards three goals or fewer. There were eight, the most in any of the 48 games. The draw was 4.15, a 24% chance; United were 2.06, a 49% chance, and Villa 3.51, a 28% chance. The Sunday night report on this site has how it happened. ## The drifts that did not matter Three of the week's biggest price moves went against the side that then won. Barcelona drifted from 1.83 to 2.14 to win at Atlético, from a 55% chance to a 47% one, most of it overnight before the game, as our Sunday piece described; they won 2-1 with two goals from Fermín López, according to the club's report, and are now three points clear of Real Madrid. Inter drifted from 1.77 a week earlier to 2.22 at the close, from 56% to 45%, and beat Como 2-0. Milan drifted from 1.77 to 2.04 and won 2-1 at Genoa. A drift says the market grew less sure; it does not say the side is going to lose, and this weekend none of the three did. ## The smaller misses Leeds beat Tottenham 1-0 with Spurs the narrow favourite at 2.69 (37%) against Leeds at 2.93 (34%) at 13:23 CET on Saturday. Brest beat Lyon 2-0 from an almost level market: Lyon 2.67 (37%), Brest 2.80 (36%) at 16:23 CET. Rennes lost 1-2 at home to Lille as a 41% chance, Lens lost 1-2 at home to Marseille as a 44% chance, and Cagliari beat Frosinone 1-0 with Frosinone the 45% favourite. Among the draws, Napoli 1-1 Lazio was a 26% chance at 12:23 CET, Fiorentina 2-2 Juventus a 28% chance, and Torino 1-1 Lecce left a 55% favourite without a win. ## What the market got right Real Madrid at 1.27 won 3-0 at Valencia, Bayern at 1.33 won 2-1 at Mainz, Arsenal at 1.17 beat Hull 1-0, PSG at 1.17 beat Troyes 1-0, Roma at 1.32 beat Sassuolo 3-0, Dortmund at 1.36 beat Elversberg 2-1. Every side priced at 1.50 or shorter won. The misses were all in the middle of the market, where a favourite is a 40% to 60% chance and losing is part of the price. ## The futures note BettingBeast's feed as captured by this site carries match prices only, so there is no title, top-four or relegation price to report this week. When those markets appear in the feed, this column will carry them. The club football now stops for two weeks. The international break fills the gap: the Nations League round on Thursday and Friday is in the feed, and the Markets desk will read those prices as it reads the club ones. ## Sources 1. BettingBeast closing prices, recorded by this site's odds job (data/closing-lines/2026-11.json) (BettingBeast via Match News) https://matchnews.news/data/odds-series.json - Read 06:40 WAT, 9 Nov 2026 2. Sunday's results and the league tables (licensed feed, generated 2026-11-09T05:22Z, in data/latest.json) (football-data.org via Match News) https://www.football-data.org/ - Read 06:40 WAT, 9 Nov 2026 3. Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City: Delap double sends City to third straight league defeat (Sky Sports) https://www.skysports.com/football/nottingham-forest-vs-manchester-city/report/559542 - Read 06:55 WAT, 9 Nov 2026 4. Atlético Madrid 1-2 FC Barcelona: Comeback to stay top (FC Barcelona) https://www.fcbarcelona.com/en/football/first-team/news/4606439/atletico-madrid-1-2-fc-barcelona-comeback-to-stay-top - Read 06:50 WAT, 9 Nov 2026 --- 18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Match News is a football news site published by Checkraise Ltd. Every odds link on this site goes to BettingBeast. Articles are written with the help of an AI system and checked against the sources they cite; the responsible editor is named on every article.