Bayern drift from 2.04 to 2.38 to win at Atlético after the Dortmund draw and three new injuries

Bayern Munich’s price to win at Atlético Madrid on Tuesday has lengthened since Saturday evening, and the move happened in one step. BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads every 30 minutes, had Bayern at 2.04 at 18:20 CET on Saturday, ten minutes before they kicked off against Borussia Dortmund. By 21:38 CET, with the 2-2 draw finished, the price was 2.35. At 06:51 CET on Sunday it was 2.38.

Decimal odds show what you get back for each unit staked, including the stake, so 2.38 means a return of 1.38 on top of each 1 risked. Turned into a rough chance, by dividing 1 by the price, Bayern went from about a 49% chance of winning in Madrid to about a 42% chance. That is a drop of around seven percentage points in an evening, which is a large move for a match still three days away.

What moved and what did not

Almost all of the change is on the Bayern side. Atlético’s price to win shortened only slightly, from 3.32 at 13:54 CET on Friday to 3.25 by 01:02 CET on Sunday, which is a rise of less than one percentage point in implied chance, from about 30% to about 31%. The draw went from 4.33 to 4.22 over the same period, also a change of under one percentage point. In other words, the market did not become more confident about Atlético. It became less confident about Bayern, and spread that doubt thinly across the other two outcomes.

The handicap line, which gives one team a head start in goals so that the two sides are closer to even, has been restless. On Friday it stood at Atlético +1, meaning Bayern were expected to win by about a goal. It moved to Atlético +0.5 during Saturday, back to +1 for one capture on Saturday afternoon, to +0.5 on Saturday evening, to level (no head start for either side) at 01:02 CET on Sunday, and back to Atlético +0.5 at 06:51 CET. A line that flips that often is a market that has not settled. The direction, though, is one way: Bayern are no longer expected to win by a clear goal.

The goals line, the total the market splits the match at, was 3.5 from Friday through Saturday, dropped to 2.5 at 01:02 CET on Sunday, and was back at 3.5 by 06:51 CET, with over 3.5 goals at 2.15 and under at 1.84. The under being the shorter price means the market leans towards three goals or fewer, as it has all week.

The public reason

There is a public reason for this move, and it comes from Bayern themselves. Three players went off injured in Saturday’s game: Serge Gnabry and Ismael Saibari in the first half, within minutes of each other, and Michael Olise later on, according to the club’s own website. Bayern were already without Luis Díaz and Manuel Neuer, and head coach Vincent Kompany is absent with illness, with assistant Aaron Danks in charge. The club has not said how long any of the three new absentees will be out, and that is exactly the kind of uncertainty a price absorbs before kick-off.

The result itself matters less to this price than the injuries do. Bayern dominated Dortmund, with 23 shots according to the club’s website, and were a missed Harry Kane penalty away from winning, as the league’s match report describes. A market pricing Bayern’s strength would not have moved seven points on a draw like that. A market pricing Bayern’s available players would.

What the price says now

At 06:51 CET on Sunday the match card reads Atlético 3.25, the draw 4.22, Bayern 2.38. Bayern are still the shorter price, so the market still makes them the more likely winner, but by a narrower margin than at any point since the feed started tracking this game on Friday. Atlético won 2-0 at Levante on Saturday afternoon and have 28 points from 11 league games, second in Spain. In the Champions League table they are 16th with four points from three games, and Bayern are 14th with five.

Prices move, and this one has moved every time we have looked since Saturday evening. The chart on this page draws every capture from the feed. If Bayern name a team on Monday that includes any of Gnabry, Saibari or Olise, we would expect some of this move to reverse; if they confirm absences, the price could lengthen further. That is a reading of what the market has done, not a view on what will happen.

18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Prices quoted were correct at the time stated and move. This article is information and opinion, not advice; no outcome is certain. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Help: Gambling Therapy.