Belgium shorten from 1.99 to 1.86 to win in Türkiye, with most of the move on Tuesday, and Türkiye drift to 4.09
BettingBeast had Belgium at 1.99 at 18:23 CET on 5 November and 1.94 at 11:22 CET on Tuesday. By 01:23 CET on Wednesday it was 1.86, where it stayed at 06:23 CET. Kick-off in İzmir is Thursday at 18:00 CET.
The price on Belgium to win in İzmir on Thursday has shortened by more than this site’s line for a move worth an article. BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, had Belgium at 1.99 when it first carried the match at 18:23 CET on Thursday 5 November, and still 1.94 at 11:22 CET on Tuesday. By 01:23 CET on Wednesday it was 1.86, and it was 1.86 again at 06:23 CET, the capture the card on this page shows, with Türkiye at 4.09 and the draw at 4.33. Kick-off at the Gürsel Aksel Stadium is at 18:00 CET on Thursday, the early game of the Nations League night that ends with Italy v France at 20:45 CET.
What the move means
Decimal odds can be turned into a chance, called the implied probability: divide one by the price. At 1.99 the price gave Belgium about a 50% chance of winning. At 1.86 it gives them about 54%. That is a rise of three and a half percentage points, and three points is the line this site draws: below it, a drift belongs in a sentence of a match preview; at it or above it, the move is the story. The three chances add up to more than 100 because the bookmaker’s margin is built into every price; the direction and the size are the point.
Türkiye’s price went from 3.67 to 4.09, from about a 27% chance to about 24%. The draw went from 3.95 to 4.33, from about 25% to about 23%. So Belgium took a point and a half of chance from Türkiye and two from the draw.
When it happened
The feed shows the price almost still for five days and then a series of small steps in one direction. Belgium were 1.99 on Thursday night, 1.96 on Friday, 1.96 on Saturday, 1.94 on Sunday afternoon, 1.98 on Monday morning and 1.98 at 17:12 CET on Monday. The odds job did not read this match again until 05:22 CET on Tuesday, a gap of twelve hours during which the price moved to 1.94. Then the steps came in daylight: 1.93 at 11:22 CET on Tuesday, 1.90 at 12:23 CET, between 1.90 and 1.92 through the afternoon and evening, 1.89 at 22:22 CET, 1.87 at 23:23 CET and 1.86 at 01:23 CET on Wednesday. Türkiye’s price moved the other way at the same times: 3.84 at 06:23 CET on Tuesday, 3.99 at 09:22 CET, 4.01 at 12:23 CET and 4.15 at 21:22 CET.
What did not move, and what the feed flipped
The goals line, the number a bet on “over” or “under” is measured against, was 2.5 at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, with over at 1.54 and under at 2.77. On that same 2.5 line the feed had over at 1.54 and under at 2.59 at 20:22 CET on 5 November, so the over price has not changed in six days and the under has lengthened from about a 39% chance to about 36%. The feed’s main line switched between 2.5 and 3.5 several times on Tuesday; it picks whichever line has prices closest to even money, so a switch that comes and goes within an hour is the feed choosing a line, not the market changing its mind.
The handicap, the goal start given to one side, was Türkiye plus half a goal at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, with Türkiye at 2.12 and Belgium at 1.86 on it. Belgium minus half a goal is the same bet as Belgium to win, so that price has moved exactly as the win price has: it was 1.95 on the half-goal line at 11:22 CET on Monday. From Friday morning to Monday morning the feed’s main line was a full goal, with Belgium at about 2.65 to win by two or more; that line left on Monday and came back for three captures in the small hours of Wednesday, with Belgium at about 2.45, before the half-goal line returned.
The public reasons
No public reason found. Nothing that happened in either camp between Thursday and Wednesday morning explains a move of this size on its own. Belgium’s coach Mark van Bommel named a squad of 26 on Friday 6 November, Sporza reported: Jeremy Doku returned after missing the October games with an injury, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Youri Tielemans were all in, and two players were called up for the first time, Josué Kongolo of Genk and Hugo Cuypers of Monterrey. Koni De Winter turned down his call-up, and Van Bommel said on RTBF’s account of the press conference: “He made his choice. I have to accept it and I cannot change it.” Zeno Debast is injured, and Thibaut Courtois is not in the squad. L’Avenir, carrying the Belga agency, reported that the full group of 26 trained in Tubize on Tuesday with no absences, with one more session on Wednesday morning before the flight to İzmir.
Türkiye have a new coach. Sergen Yalçın was appointed on 20 October after Vincenzo Montella left, and Thursday is his first match in charge, Türkiye Today reported. His squad of 26, listed by Habertürk on 6 November, has Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Orkun Kökçü in it, the last two back after missing October, and no Kenan Yıldız, who stayed at Juventus for treatment on an injury. Anadolu Agency, as carried by Habertürk, reported that Tuesday’s session was held behind closed doors and that Aral Şimşir again trained alone on an individual programme. The Belgian federation’s media schedule has Van Bommel and Tielemans speaking to the press in İzmir at 18:45 CET on Wednesday, after this article was written.
What the table says
Belgium are third in the group on six points after four games, one behind Italy and four behind France, with Türkiye bottom on none, according to Sporza’s table. The results so far: Italy 0-2 Belgium, Türkiye 0-1 France, Belgium 0-1 France, Türkiye 1-4 Italy, Belgium 3-0 Türkiye in Liège on 2 October, with two goals from De Bruyne and one from Lukaku, then France 4-1 Belgium and Italy 3-1 Türkiye. The last round is on Sunday: Belgium host Italy and France host Türkiye. UEFA’s guide to the competition says the top two in each group go to the quarter-finals in March, the two lowest-ranked third-placed teams play off to stay in League A, and the two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams go down. For Belgium a win in İzmir keeps second place in their own hands going into Sunday. For Türkiye, who can finish no higher than third, Yalçın said at his squad announcement, in Türkiye Today’s account: “We have two matches left, and we also have a chance of avoiding relegation.”
The price says Belgium are a little more likely to win than they were a week ago, and the public record says nothing happened in the two camps to cause it. That is as far as the feed takes us; the chart on this page carries the rest.
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- BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-series.json and data/odds-latest.json, capture 2026-11-11T05:23Z), BettingBeast via Match News. Read 06:50 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Programme médias des Diables Rouges, Royal Belgian Football Association. Read 07:12 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Alleen maar luxeproblemen: Mark van Bommel stelt vrijdag 12 uur nieuwe selectie samen voor belangrijk tweeluik, Sporza. Read 07:06 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Haasje-over met Italië zal cruciaal zijn: dit staat deze week op het spel voor de Rode Duivels, Sporza. Read 07:09 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Les Diables Rouges au grand complet à l'entraînement à 2 jours du match de Ligue des Nations contre la Turquie, L'Avenir (Belga). Read 07:10 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Le sens du but de Cuypers, le refus de De Winter et le potentiel de Kongolo: Van Bommel explique la sélection des nouveaux Diables, RTBF. Read 07:12 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- A Milli Futbol Takımı Teknik Direktörü Sergen Yalçın aday kadroyu açıkladı, Habertürk. Read 07:08 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- A Milli Futbol Takımı Belçika maçının hazırlıklarına devam etti, Habertürk (Anadolu Agency). Read 07:17 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Türkiye coach Sergen Yalçın names Türkiye squad for Belgium, France matches, Türkiye Today. Read 07:07 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Turkey vs Belgium, UEFA Nations League, Thursday 12 November: fixture page with the two teams' results, Sky Sports. Read 07:15 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- Türkiye succumbs to Belgium 3-0 for 3rd straight Nations League defeat, Türkiye Today. Read 07:15 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
- 2026/27 UEFA Nations League: all you need to know, UEFA. Read 07:15 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
Plain-text version: belgium-shorten-from-1-99-to-1-86-to-win-in-turkiye-most-of-it-on-tuesday.md