Leeds drift from 2.58 to 2.93 to beat Spurs, and Spurs become the favourite, after Farke's Thursday injury news
BettingBeast had Leeds at 2.58 when it first priced Saturday's game on 31 October and 2.93 at 07:22 CET on Friday. Spurs shortened from 2.89 to 2.69. Most of the move came on Thursday afternoon. Kick-off 13:30 CET.
Leeds United were the favourite to beat Tottenham at Elland Road on Saturday for most of the week, and by Friday morning they were not. BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, first carried the game at 18:20 CET on Saturday 31 October, with Leeds at 2.58, the draw at 3.44 and Spurs at 2.89. At 07:22 CET on Friday 6 November, the capture on the card above, Leeds were 2.93, the draw 3.44 and Spurs 2.69. The game kicks off at 13:30 CET on Saturday 7 November, the first Premier League match of the weekend.
What the move means
Decimal odds can be turned into a chance, called the implied probability: divide one by the price. At 2.58, Leeds were given about a 39% chance of winning by the price; at 2.93, about a 34%. That is a drop of nearly five percentage points, more than the three points this site treats as a move worth writing about. Spurs went the other way, from about a 35% chance at 2.89 to about a 37% chance at 2.69, a rise of about two and a half points. The draw did not move at all. The three chances do not add up to 100 because the bookmaker’s margin is built into every price; this piece is about direction and size, not the exact numbers.
Put simply: a week ago the price said Leeds were a little more likely to win than Spurs. Now it says Spurs are a little more likely to win than Leeds.
When it moved
The price crept rather than jumped for most of the week. Leeds were 2.58 on Saturday night, 2.64 by Sunday afternoon, and 2.72 by Monday night, a slow drift of two and a half points over three days with nothing on it worth a story. They sat around 2.70 through Tuesday and Wednesday.
Then came Thursday. At 14:24 CET on 5 November the feed had Leeds at 2.78 and Spurs at 2.77, still just about Leeds’s game by the price. At 15:23 CET Leeds were 2.85 and Spurs 2.70: Spurs had become the favourite, the side the price gives the better chance. At 19:22 CET Leeds were 2.91 and Spurs 2.70. By 01:22 CET on Friday Leeds were 2.93, and that is where the price stayed through the morning. So almost the whole move of the week, from 2.78 to 2.93, happened in about eleven hours on Thursday afternoon and evening.
The public reason
Leeds held their pre-match press conference on Thursday, and the club’s own write-up of it gives the reason. Daniel Farke, the Leeds manager, said: “Some mixed news during this week.” The good news was Joe Rodon, back in full team training after a long absence. The rest was not good. Of Noah Okafor, who missed the Bournemouth game with an adductor problem, Farke said: “He was also not able to have one team training session during this week so far, just individual work for him.” Of Anton Stach: “The same for Anton Stach with foot problems.” He said both were “major doubts”. And of Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the striker: “Dominic Calvert-Lewin had a little setback with his foot as well, was not able to train with us today.” Farke said he was “carefully optimistic” that Calvert-Lewin would train on Friday.
In a second piece the same day, the club reported Farke saying that Stach had been playing with a broken finger and now had a broken little toe: “His little toe is broken, and that is of course painful.”
The Premier League’s own availability notes, which this site reads each morning, caught up with the press conference at 19:30 CET on Thursday: they added Stach with a foot injury and a 50% chance of playing and Calvert-Lewin with a foot injury and a 75% chance, cut Okafor from 75% to 50%, and took Rodon off the list altogether. The first step in the price, at 15:23 CET, came after the press conference; the second, at 19:22 CET, came a few minutes before the notes were updated, which fits a market that had already heard what Farke said.
On the Spurs side, nothing changed on Thursday. The availability notes list Tosin with a calf injury, Sávio with a muscle injury, Lucas Bergvall, Xavi Simons and Wilson Odobert with knee injuries and Mykhailo Mudryk with an ankle injury, all as they were earlier in the week. No Spurs press conference was published on an allowed source by Friday morning, so this piece cannot say what Roberto De Zerbi, the Spurs head coach, expects of his side.
What did not move
The goals line, the number a bet on “over” or “under” is measured against, has been 2.5 goals in every capture since 31 October. Over was 1.98 at the first capture and 2.05 at 07:22 CET on Friday; under was 1.91 and 1.92. That is a change of one or two points against a high-scoring game, barely anything.
The handicap, the goal start given to one side to even the contest, has sat between “level”, “Leeds plus half a goal” and “Leeds minus half a goal” all week. The feed picks whichever of those lines has prices closest to even money as its main line, so the switching between them is how the feed is built, not the market changing its mind. At 07:22 CET on Friday the main line was level, at 2.06 for Leeds and 1.89 for Spurs.
The game the price is about
Leeds are twelfth in the Premier League on eleven points from nine games, two wins, five draws and two defeats, after losing 2-0 at Bournemouth on 31 October, when Calvert-Lewin had a goal ruled out for handball and Okafor and Rodon were unable to travel, according to the club’s report. Spurs are ninth on twelve points, three wins, three draws and three defeats, and have no European football this season, so they come to Elland Road with a full week’s rest. Jayden Bogle, the Leeds defender, said in a club interview this week: “You can’t really pay too much attention to league position at the moment.”
Spurs won 2-1 at Elland Road in October last year, with goals from Mathys Tel and Mohammed Kudus either side of one from Okafor, according to Sky Sports’ team page for that game. The referee on Saturday is John Brooks, the club has announced, with Tony Harrington on VAR. The club has also said there is a tribute in the 68th minute to Colin Westby, a supporter who was taken ill before the Manchester United game on 18 October and has died.
The card on this page carries the latest price from the feed with its capture time, and the chart under it draws every capture since 31 October. Whether Calvert-Lewin trains on Friday is the next thing the price is waiting for; the official teams are due at about 12:15 CET on Saturday. The price says only how the chances looked at 07:22 CET on Friday, not who wins.
18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Prices quoted were correct at the time stated and move. This article is information and opinion, not advice; no outcome is certain. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Help: Gambling Therapy.
- BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-series.json and data/odds-latest.json), BettingBeast via Match News. Read 07:28 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Team News: Injury updates on Calvert-Lewin, Okafor & Stach, Leeds United. Read 07:16 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Boss takes unusual step with midfielder's injury to highlight training disruption, Leeds United. Read 07:16 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Fine margins: Jayden Bogle reveals Thorp Arch focus ahead of Spurs visit, Leeds United. Read 07:16 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Full-time report as Leeds United fall to defeat against in-form Bournemouth, Leeds United. Read 07:14 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Officials appointed for Spurs clash, Leeds United. Read 07:12 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Premier League availability notes (official Fantasy Premier League data, updated 2026-11-06T05:23Z, in data/latest.json), Premier League via Match News. Read 07:20 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Premier League standings and fixtures (licensed feed, generated 2026-11-06T05:23Z, in data/latest.json), football-data.org via Match News. Read 07:20 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
- Leeds United 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur, 4 October 2025: teams, Sky Sports. Read 07:10 CET, 6 Nov 2026.
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