Barcelona v Aston Villa: three wins from three meet a side that has just scored six, and Yamal chases Mbappé's record

Barcelona play Aston Villa at the Spotify Camp Nou on Tuesday 3 November at 21:00 CET, the fourth round of the Champions League’s league phase. On the table it is the away side who arrive as the form team: Villa have won all three of their European games this season, nine points, second of 36 on goal difference behind Paris Saint-Germain. Barcelona have six points from two wins and a defeat and are eighth, the last of the places that go straight to the last 16.

Why it matters

The league phase is one table of 36 clubs. Each team plays eight different opponents; the top eight go directly to the last 16, places nine to 24 go into a play-off round in February, and the bottom 12 are out. Villa are one of five clubs with a perfect record after three rounds, alongside PSG, Liverpool, Real Madrid and Real Betis, according to the table in the data feed this site uses, and a point in Barcelona would keep them in the top group with four games left. For Barcelona, eighth on six points, a win would move them clear of the crowd of clubs on six and make the direct route to the last 16 look more likely.

Barcelona come into the game on a high. They beat Alavés 6-1 on Saturday night, with Raphinha and Lamine Yamal scoring twice each, a response to two league defeats in a row, as we reported on Sunday. They lead La Liga with 30 points from 11 games, two ahead of Atlético Madrid, whom they visit on Sunday. Villa are tenth in the Premier League with 12 points from nine games, three wins, three draws and three defeats.

The week around it

Both sides have a big league game on Sunday 8 November. Villa go to Old Trafford to play Manchester United at 17:30 CET; Barcelona are at Atlético at 21:00 CET. The kick-off times come from the fixture feed used on this site.

Team news

Barcelona had only two training sessions between Saturday’s game and this one, and every available first-team player took part in Monday’s final session under Hansi Flick, according to the club’s website, which does not list who is missing. UEFA’s team-news page does: Andreas Christensen and Eric García (both hamstring), Jules Koundé (ankle), Dani Olmo (adductor) and Xavi Espart (ankle) are out, with nobody listed as doubtful. UEFA’s predicted line-up, which is a prediction and not a confirmed team, has Joan García in goal, Cancelo, Cubarsí, De Jong and Gerard Martín across the back, Rodri and Pedri in midfield, Yamal, Fermín López and Anthony Gordon behind Raphinha.

For Villa, UEFA lists Matteo Ruggeri and Aaron Wan-Bissaka as out, both with hamstring injuries, which matches the Premier League’s availability notes, where Ruggeri is expected back in January and Wan-Bissaka on 21 November. The same notes list Matty Cash as suspended until 21 November, but that ban is for league matches; UEFA’s predicted Villa side includes him at right-back, in a team of Suzuki; Cash, Lindelöf, Pau Torres, Maatsen; João Gomes, Kamara; McGinn, Manzambi, Mbaye; Jackson. We found no statement from Villa on Cash’s European availability on Tuesday morning. The official teams are due at 19:45 CET; the card on this page carries the latest price.

What was said

Flick’s press conference on Monday ran under the headline “We are playing against a fantastic team” on Villa’s own website, which carried his remarks about Unai Emery’s side. Barcelona’s website noted that Anthony Gordon spoke to reporters from his home country before the game.

How to read the market

This is a flat market and a lopsided one. BettingBeast’s feed, read at least once an hour by this site, had Barcelona at 1.27 to win at 13:54 CET on Friday and 1.28 at 06:22 CET on Tuesday, which is about a 78% chance by the price and no movement at all. Villa were 10.76 on Friday and 10.23 on Tuesday morning, roughly a 10% chance, and the draw 7.92. The goals line is 4.5, with over 4.5 goals at 2.18 and under at 1.81, which is a high line and tells you the market expects a lot of goals.

What to watch

Yamal, who is 19, has 13 Champions League goals as a teenager, level with Kylian Mbappé’s record for a player before his 20th birthday; one more would make the record his alone, according to UEFA. Barcelona are unbeaten in their last 15 home European games against English clubs, ten wins and five draws, since Liverpool won at the old Camp Nou in 2007. Villa have won one of eight European away games in Spain, at Celta in 1998, and Pau Torres lost seven of his eight games against Barcelona while at Villarreal. All of those numbers are UEFA’s. Emery’s three wins so far have come with a goal difference of plus nine, the same as PSG’s, so a side that defends and breaks quickly against a Barcelona team playing its second game in four days is the likeliest shape of the evening. Whether that produces the five goals the market half expects is the open question.

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