Czechia v Spain in Prague on Thursday: Spain already through and without Yamal, Czechia still without a point
Kick-off 20:45 CET at the Letná Stadium. Spain have won all four group games and cannot finish below second; Czechia have lost all four. Yamal misses the game with a knee injury and aims to face England on Sunday.
Spain play their last away game of the year in Prague on Thursday with the hard part already done. Four wins from four in their Nations League group have put the world champions in the quarter-finals before a ball is kicked this week, and the only question left for them is first place, which matters for the draw on 20 November. Czechia, who host them at the Letná Stadium at 20:45 CET, have lost all four games under a Spanish coach, Santi Denia, and are still looking for their first point. Lamine Yamal, who scored in both games between the two sides in September and October, misses the match with a knee injury.
Why it matters
The group has Spain on twelve points, England on nine, Croatia on three and Czechia on none after four rounds, according to UEFA’s results page. UEFA’s guide to the competition says the top two in each group go to the quarter-finals in March, the two lowest-ranked third-placed teams play off to stay in League A, and the two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams go down to League B. Croatia can reach nine points at most, so Spain cannot finish below second and are through. A win in Prague and at least a draw against England in Madrid on Sunday would make them certain of first place, which decides who they can meet in the quarter-final draw.
For Czechia the arithmetic is about fourth place. They cannot catch the top two. A win on Thursday would put them level with Croatia on three points before the two meet in Croatia on Sunday; Croatia won the first meeting 2-1 in Prague in September. Finishing bottom would mean either a play-off against a League B side or relegation, depending on how the four bottom teams in League A rank against each other.
The week around it
Thursday’s other games in the group are England v Croatia at Wembley at the same time, previewed on this site on Tuesday. Then on Sunday 15 November Spain host England at the Estadio Metropolitano in Madrid at 20:45 CET and Croatia host Czechia. The results so far: England 2-3 Spain and Czechia 1-2 Croatia on 26 September, Spain 4-1 Croatia and Czechia 0-2 England on 29 September, Spain 3-1 Czechia and Croatia 0-7 England on 3 October, Croatia 1-2 Spain and England 3-0 Czechia on 6 October.
The game in Oviedo on 3 October is the one to remember. Yamal scored after six minutes, Rodri added a second in the 35th and Mikel Merino the third a minute from the end, with Jiří Sláma scoring for Czechia in the 69th, according to ESPN’s report; Ladislav Krejčí was sent off late on for Czechia, UEFA’s round-up of that matchday says. Spain’s coach Luis de la Fuente said afterwards, in UEFA’s account, “we suffered tonight, and I’d say that we’re not so used to that”. UEFA’s preview of this round says Spain are unbeaten in their last 43 competitive matches, 36 wins and seven draws, not counting penalty shoot-outs.
Team news
Spain’s squad has changed three times since De la Fuente named 27 players on 6 November. Jorge de Frutos of Rayo Vallecano replaced Ander Barrenetxea, who is injured, the federation said on Sunday. Víctor Muñoz of Liverpool was added on Monday, the federation said, without naming anyone he replaces. And Yamal is out of Thursday’s game: ESPN reported on Monday that the federation had announced he would miss the Czechia match after a knock to his right knee in Barcelona’s 2-1 win at Atlético Madrid, with the aim of joining the squad before Sunday’s game against England. UEFA’s preview also lists him as expected to miss this match. The federation’s note on Monday said 24 players began the camp at Las Rozas, with David Raya, Yamal and Mikel Oyarzabal due to join during the week.
The squad has one newcomer, Como’s defender Jacobo Ramón, called up for the first time, ESPN reported, alongside returns for Marc Roca and Álvaro Valles. The forwards on the federation’s list are Ferran Torres, Roberto Fernández, Yeremy Pino, De Frutos, Nico Williams, Muñoz, Oyarzabal and Yamal. Yamal leads Spain’s scoring in the group with four goals and Merino has three, including two against Croatia, UEFA’s preview says.
No confirmed team news from the Czech camp as of 07:00 CET: the Czech federation’s website could not be read this morning, so this site does not know which of Denia’s players are fit. Denia, who coached Spain’s youth teams before taking the Czech job in the summer, said in UEFA’s preview: “We are in the perfect moment to grow as a national team group.” The official teams are due at about 19:45 CET; the card on this page carries the latest price.
How to read the market
The price on Spain to win has drifted since the match first appeared in BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour. Spain were 1.18 at 21:22 CET on Thursday 5 November, about an 85% chance by the price, and 1.22 at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, about 82%: a drift of three points of implied probability, the chance you get by dividing one by the price. The whole step came on Monday afternoon, between the 13:26 CET capture, when Spain were 1.19, and the 15:26 CET capture, when they were 1.23; ESPN’s report on Yamal’s knee was published at 13:06 CET that day. Czechia’s price shortened from 19.41 to 14.59 over the same week, from about a 5% chance to about 7%, and the draw went from 8.52 to 8.30. The handicap, the goal start given to the weaker side, was Czechia plus two goals at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, with Czechia at 1.89 and Spain at 2.06 on that line; the feed’s main line had been a goal and a half from Friday to Monday afternoon and moved to two goals when the win price moved. The goals line at the same capture was 3.5, with over at 2.22 and under at 1.77.
What to watch
Without Yamal the right side of Spain’s attack is open, with Pino, De Frutos and Muñoz the wide players left on the list. A heavy Spain win looks less likely than the 7-0 England managed against Croatia: Czechia have conceded ten goals in four games and scored two, one of them in Oviedo. The shape of the game that looks most likely is a Spain win by one or two goals, which is what the two-goal handicap line is also saying. Whether Denia’s side can take a first point is the Czech story; whether Spain can keep first place in their own hands before Sunday’s game with England is the Spanish one.
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- Luis de la Fuente llama a Jorge de Frutos para sustituir a Ander Barrenetxea por lesión, RFEF. Read 06:52 CET, 11 Nov 2026.
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