Serbia v Germany in Belgrade on Friday: Klopp's side need a win, Paunović is banned from the bench, Vlahović is out

Jürgen Klopp takes Germany to Belgrade on Friday for the game that decides whether his first autumn as national coach ends with a quarter-final place or a fight to stay in the top division of the Nations League. Germany are third in their group on five points, three behind the Netherlands and Greece, with two games left: Serbia away at 20:45 CET on Friday at the Rajko Mitić Stadium, then the Netherlands in Berlin on Monday. Serbia have lost all four games, their coach Veljko Paunović is banned from the bench, Dušan Vlahović has withdrawn from the squad, and most of the ground is shut to the public under a UEFA punishment.

Why it matters

UEFA’s guide to the competition says the top two in each group go to the quarter-finals in March, the two lowest-ranked third-placed teams play off against League B sides to stay up, and the two lowest-ranked fourth-placed teams go down. The Netherlands and Greece have eight points each, Germany five, Serbia none, by UEFA’s results. The Netherlands play Greece in Amsterdam on Friday at the same time as this game, so a German win in Belgrade would bring Germany level with at least one of them before the last round, and level with both if that game is drawn. Anything less than a win leaves Germany needing help on Monday.

Klopp was presented as Germany’s coach on 24 July on a four-year contract, the German federation’s website says, and took over on 15 August after Julian Nagelsmann resigned following the World Cup. His first match was a 1-1 draw in Amsterdam on 24 September; his first win was the 2-0 against Serbia in Munich on 1 October, with goals from Tom Bischof in the 39th minute and Florian Wirtz in the 61st, according to the federation. In between, Germany lost 0-1 at home to Greece in Augsburg, Greece’s first win over Germany, UEFA’s round-up of that matchday says, and they drew 0-0 in Greece on 4 October.

The week around it

Friday: Serbia v Germany, Belgrade, 20:45 CET; Netherlands v Greece, Amsterdam, 20:45 CET. Monday 16 November: Germany v Netherlands at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, 20:45 CET, the federation says; Greece v Serbia the same evening. The group so far: Netherlands 1-1 Germany and Serbia 1-2 Greece on 24 September; Germany 0-1 Greece and Serbia 1-2 Netherlands on 27 September; Germany 2-0 Serbia and Greece 2-2 Netherlands on 1 October; Greece 0-0 Germany and Netherlands 2-1 Serbia on 4 October.

The ground on Friday is not what it would normally be. Večernje novosti, the Belgrade daily, reported that UEFA punished the Serbian federation for the behaviour of fans at the home games against Greece and the Netherlands in September with a home match without spectators, and that the federation has said the game against Germany is to be played with a limited crowd of children aged 14 and under, admitted in organised groups from schools and clubs. This site could not find the text of UEFA’s decision on its own website on Wednesday morning, so the details are as the Serbian press reports them.

Team news

Germany’s squad of 24 was named on 5 November. Niclas Füllkrug of Werder Bremen is back in it, and Wael Mohya, a 17-year-old from Borussia Mönchengladbach, is called up for the first time, the federation’s announcement says; Klopp said in it, in German, “I am hugely looking forward to the next two games”. Waldemar Anton of Dortmund is out of both matches with a muscle problem and Ridle Baku of RB Leipzig was called up in his place on Sunday, the federation said. All 24 reported to the camp in Herzogenaurach on Monday, and Marc-André ter Stegen is the first-choice goalkeeper for now, Sky Sport Deutschland reported. Said El Mala of Köln missed both sessions on Tuesday to manage his workload, Sport1 reported, with no injury given. Not in the squad, according to ZDF’s list: Nick Woltemade, Karim Adeyemi, David Raum and Serge Gnabry. Füllkrug, who has 14 goals in 24 caps, told Tuesday’s press conference, in the Weser-Kurier’s account, “I am happy to be here again.”

Serbia’s problems run deeper. Paunović is suspended for this match after collecting yellow cards, Večernje novosti reported, and his assistant Quinton Fortune, the former Manchester United player, is expected to take the team from the touchline. Vlahović has withdrawn from both November games; Paunović said, in the paper’s account, that the striker had told him he had a private matter he wanted to resolve in this period. Strahinja Pavlović of Milan is also out and Milan Krpić of Győr has replaced him, and Aleksa Terzić is out with an infection, the same paper reported. Danas reported when the squad was named that Saša Lukić and Nemanja Maksimović are suspended for the Germany game on yellow cards. Aleksandar Mitrović is back in the squad after 217 days away, Danas reported, and Dušan Tadić keeps the captain’s armband, Paunović said. No confirmed teams as of 07:00 CET; the official line-ups are due at about 19:45 CET on Friday, and the card on this page carries the latest price.

How to read the market

BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, has had Germany as a strong favourite since it first carried the match at 21:22 CET on Friday 6 November, and the price has shortened a little: Germany were 1.32 then, about a 76% chance by the price, and 1.28 at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, about 78%, with the step coming on Sunday morning and the price sitting between 1.28 and 1.30 since. That is two points of implied probability, the chance you get by dividing one by the price, which is a drift worth a sentence and not a story. Serbia drifted from 9.81 to 10.69 and the draw from 6.71 to 7.12 over the same days. The handicap, the goal start given to the weaker side, was Serbia plus a goal and a half at the 04:22 CET capture on Wednesday, with Serbia at 2.17 and Germany at 1.79 on it; the goals line was 3.5 at the same capture, with over at 2.12 and under at 1.83, unchanged since the first capture.

What to watch

Germany have scored three goals in four group games, and Klopp has gone back to Füllkrug for this window, so the first thing to watch is whether Germany play with a target man against a Serbian defence missing Pavlović and with its coach in the stands. Serbia have scored in three of their four games and lost all four by one or two goals, so a German win by one or two goals looks the most likely shape; the handicap line, set at a goal and a half, puts the question of a two-goal margin close to even. The other thing to watch is the scoreboard in Amsterdam: if the Netherlands and Greece draw, a German win puts all three on eight points before Monday’s game in Berlin.

Source: BettingBeast's live odds feed, captured at the times shown (CET). Prices move.

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Sources

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