Leipzig v Manchester City: Maresca's side after two league defeats in a row, and Haaland's 12 goals in eight meetings

Manchester City play RB Leipzig in Germany on Wednesday 4 November at 21:00 CET, in the fourth round of the Champions League’s league phase. It is the first game since City lost two Premier League matches in a row, and it is against a club City have beaten four times in six European meetings, most of them with a good deal of help from Erling Haaland.

Why it matters

The league phase is one table of 36 clubs. Each team plays eight different opponents; the top eight go straight to the last 16, places nine to 24 go into a play-off round in February, and the bottom 12 are out. City have six points from three games, two wins and a defeat, and are 12th. A win in Leipzig would take them to nine points, which is where the clubs in second to seventh place sat after Tuesday’s games. Leipzig have three points from one win and two defeats and are 27th, three places above the cut-off below which clubs go out.

The domestic picture is the reason this game has more edge than the table suggests. City are second in the Premier League with 21 points from nine games, three behind Arsenal, after losing 1-0 at home to Brighton on Saturday, their second league defeat in a row. Enzo Maresca took over from Pep Guardiola in the summer and began with seven league wins in a row; the last two results are the first time his side has lost two league games in a row. Leipzig are fourth in the Bundesliga on 15 points from eight games, three behind Bayern and Dortmund.

The week around it

City go to Nottingham Forest on Saturday 7 November at 18:30 CET in the Premier League. Leipzig host Augsburg the same day at 15:30 CET. Both kick-off times come from the fixture feed used on this site.

Team news

UEFA’s team-news page for the match, published on Tuesday morning, lists one absentee for City: Antoine Semenyo, with a knee injury. Nobody is listed as doubtful. For Leipzig it lists Assan Ouédraogo (shoulder) as out and Estève as doubtful after a knock. No confirmed team news from either club was available in the sources this site uses as of 07:00 CET; the official teams are due at 19:45 CET, and the card on this page carries the latest price.

UEFA’s predicted line-up for City, which is a prediction and not a confirmed team, has Donnarumma in goal, Khusanov, Guéhi, Rúben Dias and Gvardiol across the back, Anderson and Fernández in midfield, Foden, Cherki and Doku behind Haaland. Its predicted Leipzig side has Vandevoordt in goal, Orbán and Lukeba in the middle of defence, Baumgartner and Banzuzi in midfield, and Gruda, Rômulo Cardoso and Nusa in attack.

What the record says

UEFA’s own preview gives the history in three lines. The clubs have met six times in European competition, City winning four and Leipzig one. Haaland has scored 12 goals in eight appearances against Leipzig. And Christopher Nkunku’s hat-trick for Leipzig in a defeat at City in 2021-22 is the reminder that Leipzig have scored freely in this fixture even while losing it.

How to read the market

BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, has barely moved on this game. City were 1.56 to win on Friday afternoon at 13:54 CET and 1.59 at 06:23 CET on Wednesday, a change of about one percentage point in their chance by the price (divide 1 by the price to get the chance: 1.59 is about 63%). Leipzig went from 5.35 to 5.62, the draw from 5.08 to 5.08. Decimal odds show what you get back for each unit staked, including the stake. The handicap, which gives one side a head start in goals so the two prices sit closer to even money, is Leipzig +1, with Leipzig at 2.09 and City at 1.87 on that line; the goals line is 3.5, with over 3.5 goals at 1.85 and under at 2.12, so the market leans a little towards four goals or more. The two league defeats have not changed the market’s view of City in Europe. The chart on this page draws every capture.

What to watch

The first thing is whether Maresca picks the side that lost to Brighton or the one that beat Brighton on penalties in the cup three days earlier, when he rested Haaland, Donnarumma, Dias, Anderson and Gvardiol. UEFA’s prediction has all five starting. The second is Leipzig’s front three against a City defence that lost 1-0 to Brighton on Saturday: Nusa and Gruda on the wings have pace, and Rômulo Cardoso through the middle is the man UEFA’s prediction builds the attack around. With Haaland’s record against this opponent and a goals line that already sits at 3.5, a game with goals at both ends looks more likely than a tight one; which way it tips depends on which City turns up, and nobody can know that before 19:45 CET. That is a reading of the two squads, not a forecast.

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