Inter drift from 1.72 to 1.95 to win at Feyenoord after the derby defeat

Inter’s price to win at Feyenoord on Tuesday night has lengthened across the weekend, in two steps. BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, had Inter at 1.72 at 13:54 CET on Friday. At 01:02 CET on Sunday, a few hours after they lost the Milan derby 3-1, the price was 1.85. It sat between 1.87 and 1.90 through Sunday and Monday, and at 06:22 CET on Tuesday it was 1.95.

Decimal odds show what you get back for each unit staked, including the stake, so 1.95 means a return of 0.95 on top of each 1 risked. Turned into a rough chance, by dividing 1 by the price, Inter have gone from about a 58% chance of winning in Rotterdam to about a 51% chance. That is a drop of around seven percentage points over four days, which clears the bar this desk uses for a move worth an article (three points or more) twice over.

What moved and what did not

Most of the chance that left Inter went to Feyenoord. The home side’s price shortened from 4.50 on Friday to 4.12 at 01:02 CET on Sunday and 3.84 on Tuesday morning, a rise from about a 22% chance to about 26%. The draw barely changed, from 4.55 to 4.33, which is a shift of about one percentage point. In plain words: the market still expects Inter to win more often than not, but it now gives Feyenoord a real share of the outcomes where on Friday it gave them a small one.

The goals line, the total the market splits the match at, has been 3.5 at every capture since Friday. Over 3.5 goals was 2.07 on Friday and 2.12 on Tuesday morning; under 3.5 was 1.85 and is 1.84. That is no movement at all. The market has changed its mind about who wins, not about how many goals there are.

The handicap, which gives one team a head start in goals so that the two sides are closer to even, opened at Feyenoord +1 on Friday and has mostly sat at Feyenoord +0.5 since Saturday morning, flipping back to +1 for the odd capture. The feed picks its main line from whichever is closest to even money, and when the two neighbouring lines are both close it swaps between them; that is how the feed works, not the market changing its mind. At 06:22 CET on Tuesday the line was Feyenoord +0.5, with Feyenoord at 2.04 and Inter at 1.95 on it.

The public reason

The first step has a date on it. The price barely moved between Friday and the 21:38 CET capture on Saturday, seven minutes before the derby kicked off (1.72 to 1.75, about one percentage point), and it had moved to 1.85 by 01:02 CET on Sunday, after Milan had won 3-1 and ended Inter’s unbeaten start to the league season. Our report of the game is linked below.

The second step came more slowly, and the team news gives a plausible reason without proving one. UEFA’s team-news page for the match, published on Monday, lists Alessandro Bastoni as suspended for Tuesday, and Lautaro Martínez, Stones and Jones as out with muscle and thigh injuries, with Luis Henrique doubtful. Lautaro has been out since mid-October, when the club said tests had found a hamstring strain in his left leg, so his absence was already in Friday’s price. Bastoni’s was not necessarily: he scored Inter’s goal in the derby and played the whole game. UEFA’s predicted line-up for Inter, which is a prediction and not a confirmed team, has Bisseck, Akanji and Carlos Augusto as the back three, Esposito and Thuram in attack, and Josep Martínez in goal. The official teams are due at 19:45 CET.

Feyenoord have their own problems. UEFA lists six players out, including Bos, Moder, Nieuwkoop and Smal, with St. Juste doubtful. That did not stop their price shortening, which suggests the move is about Inter rather than about Feyenoord.

What the price says now

At 06:22 CET on Tuesday the match card reads Feyenoord 3.84, the draw 4.33, Inter 1.95. Inter are still the clear favourite, the team the market thinks is more likely to win, but by a smaller margin than at any point since the feed started tracking this game.

The table explains why the game matters to both. Inter have three points from three Champions League games and are 20th of 36, level on points with eleven other clubs, Manchester United among them; Feyenoord also have three points and are 26th. Places nine to 24 go to a play-off round in February, the bottom 12 are out, and the gap between those two zones is a single result. In Serie A, Inter dropped to second on 25 points after the derby, three behind Lazio.

Two numbers from UEFA’s own preview for context: Inter are unbeaten in their last 14 European games against Dutch clubs, ten wins and four draws, and Feyenoord are unbeaten in their last six home group or league-phase games against Italian clubs, four wins and two draws. The market has to weigh one record against the other, and this weekend it has shaded towards the home one. Hakan Çalhanoğlu is on 12 Champions League goals, one behind the Turkish record shared by Hakan Şükür and Burak Yılmaz.

Prices move, and this one has moved every day since Saturday. The chart on this page draws every capture from the feed. That is a reading of what the market has done, not a view on what will happen.

19+ (18+ in Quebec, Alberta and Manitoba). Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Prices quoted were correct at the time stated and move. This article is information and opinion, not advice; no outcome is certain. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Help: Responsible Gambling Council.