Atlético v Bayern: Kompany still off sick, four forwards out, and Kane one goal from Ronaldo's record

Atlético Madrid play Bayern Munich at the Metropolitano on Tuesday 3 November at 21:00 CET, in the fourth round of the Champions League’s league phase. It is the biggest game of the night, and both clubs arrive with something to prove: Bayern because a long injury list has grown longer since Saturday, Atlético because a side that is second in Spain sits 16th of 36 in Europe.

Why it matters

The league phase is a single table of 36 clubs. Each team plays eight different opponents; the top eight go straight to the last 16, places nine to 24 go into a play-off round in February, and the bottom 12 are out. After three rounds Bayern have five points from a 5-0 win over Bodø/Glimt, a 3-3 draw in Stavanger and a 2-2 draw at home to Arsenal, which leaves them 14th. Atlético have four, from a 1-0 defeat at Liverpool, a 2-0 home win over Manchester United and a 1-1 draw at Stuttgart, and are 16th. With four games left after this one, a win for either side would lift them into the top-eight conversation; a defeat leaves them in the middle of the pack with the harder half of the schedule still to come.

The domestic context cuts the other way. Atlético won 2-0 at Levante on Saturday and have 28 points from 11 La Liga games, second, two behind Barcelona and one ahead of Real Madrid. Bayern drew 2-2 at home to Borussia Dortmund the same evening, Harry Kane hit the bar with a penalty, and the two German sides are level on 18 points at the top of the Bundesliga.

The week around it

Atlético’s next game is the biggest in Spain this month: Barcelona at the Metropolitano on Sunday 8 November at 21:00 CET. Bayern go to Mainz on Saturday 7 November at 15:30 CET. Both kick-off times come from the fixture feed used on this site.

Team news

Bayern published their team news on Monday evening. Head coach Vincent Kompany is still off sick, so assistant Aaron Danks is in charge, as he was against Dortmund. Jamal Musiala (torn muscle fibre) and Luis Díaz (a small tear in a hamstring) are unavailable, though both trained alone with the ball on Monday. Serge Gnabry (muscle injury) and Ismael Saibari (a torn ankle ligament), who both went off in the first half on Saturday, are out, as is Bara Ndiaye after an appendix operation. Michael Olise, taken off as a precaution against Dortmund, has travelled and is to be assessed on the day. The better news is in goal: Manuel Neuer completed his first full team training session and is in the squad. If he plays it is his 164th Champions League appearance, which would make him the German with the most, passing Thomas Müller, according to UEFA.

For Atlético, UEFA’s team-news page lists Johnny Cardoso (hamstring) and Morten Hjulmand (suspended) as out and the captain Koke (hamstring) as doubtful. UEFA’s predicted line-up, which is a prediction and not a confirmed team, has Oblak in goal, a back four of Marc Pubill, Romero, Hancko and Grimaldo, Giuliano Simeone, Barrios, Llorente and Álex Baena in midfield, and Julián Álvarez with Lee Kang-in in attack. The same page predicts Bayern with Urbig in goal, Kimmich and Pavlović in midfield and Kane up front, with Karl, Brown and Davies behind him. The official teams are due at 19:45 CET; the card on this page carries the latest price.

What was said

Danks said he expects “a high-quality clash” and a game that is “neck and neck”, according to Bayern’s website. Kane, who collected the Ballon d’Or last week, said of Atlético: “We know how dangerous they are in attack and on the counter-attack.” Diego Simeone, Atlético’s coach, is quoted on the same page: “We’re playing at home, and that’s where we’re strong.” Atlético are unbeaten in their last 16 home European games against German clubs, 12 wins and four draws, a run that goes back to a defeat by Dortmund in 1996, according to UEFA.

How to read the market

BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, has moved a long way on this game and then part of the way back. On Friday afternoon at 13:54 CET Bayern were 2.02 to win, roughly a 50% chance by the price; after the Dortmund draw and the injuries they drifted to 2.38 by Sunday morning, as our Markets piece described, and to 2.56 at 06:23 CET on Monday. By 12:28 CET on Monday, with the Neuer news out, the price had come back to 2.43, and at 06:22 CET on Tuesday it was 2.46, about a 41% chance. Atlético have gone the other way, from 3.32 on Friday to 2.82 now, a rise from about 30% to about 36%. Decimal odds show what you get back for each unit staked, including the stake. The draw is 4.02. The goals line is 3.5, with over 3.5 goals at 2.19 and under at 1.79, so the market leans towards three goals or fewer. Bayern are still the shorter price, which means the market still makes them the more likely winner, but the gap is the smallest it has been since the feed started tracking the match. The chart on this page draws every capture.

What to watch

Kane has scored in each of his last ten Champions League appearances; one more would equal Cristiano Ronaldo’s competition record of 11 in a row, according to UEFA. Julián Álvarez is the man UEFA’s predicted line-up builds Atlético’s attack around, with Lee Kang-in beside him. Grimaldo lost only one of six games against Bayern while at Leverkusen and scored in both league meetings in 2023-24, UEFA notes. With Bayern missing four attacking players, a tighter, lower-scoring game than Bayern’s 3-3 and 2-2 draws looks more likely than not; we would be surprised by a repeat of the 5-0 in Bodø. That is a reading of the two squads, not a forecast.

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