Newcastle drift from 3.11 to 3.74 to win at Fulham, and most of the move came on Monday night during the Everton defeat

Newcastle United’s price to win at Fulham on Saturday 7 November has lengthened from 3.11 to 3.74 at BettingBeast in the week since the feed first carried the game, and the bulk of the move happened in two hours on Monday night, while Newcastle were losing 0-1 at home to Everton. The game kicks off at 16:00 CET at Craven Cottage.

What moved

BettingBeast’s feed, which this site reads at least once an hour, first carried the game at 21:38 CET on Saturday 31 October: Fulham 2.29 to win, the draw 3.64, Newcastle 3.11. Turning a price into a chance, called the implied probability, means dividing one by the price, so Newcastle were about a 32% chance then and Fulham about a 44%.

The first night was restless. Newcastle were 3.45 by 01:02 CET on Sunday and 3.61 at 10:22 CET, then came back to 3.23 by 04:23 CET on Monday 2 November, with Fulham at 2.27. That is where the market sat all Monday, until the Everton game at St James’ Park, which kicked off at 21:00 CET. At 21:23 CET Newcastle were 3.34; at 22:22 CET, 3.44; at 23:22 CET, after the final whistle, 3.72. Fulham went the other way, 2.27 to 2.17 by 22:22 CET and 2.12 by 00:23 CET on Tuesday. Newcastle’s chance by the price fell from 31% to 27% in those two hours.

The rest of the week was quiet. Newcastle moved between 3.56 and 3.69 from Tuesday to Friday morning, Fulham between 2.08 and 2.15. The last step came on Friday 6 November between 12:23 and 13:24 CET: Newcastle 3.69 to 3.74, Fulham 2.12 to 2.08. At the 06:23 CET capture on Saturday, the price on the card above, it was Fulham 2.08, the draw 3.76, Newcastle 3.74. Over the week Newcastle have gone from a 32% chance to a 27%, a fall of five percentage points, and Fulham from 44% to 48%. Both are above the three-point mark this site treats as a real move.

What did not move

The draw has barely changed, 3.64 to 3.76, about one percentage point. The handicap, the goal start given to one side to even the contest, has been Fulham giving half a goal for most of the week, switching now and then to a level line; the feed picks whichever line has prices closest to even money, so the switching is how the feed works, not a change of mind. At the Saturday capture Fulham were 2.08 to win by any margin on that half-goal line and Newcastle 1.89 to win or draw. The goals line has flipped between 2.5 and 3.5 the same way all week, and at the Saturday capture the feed showed 3.5 goals with over at 2.74 and no price on the under, so no under price is quoted here.

The public reasons

The timing fits the result. Newcastle’s 0-1 defeat to Everton on Monday was their second loss to the same club in five days, after going out of the League Cup, the Carabao Cup, 3-1 at Everton on Thursday 29 October, and Sky Sports’ report says the home crowd booed the team off at half-time and at full-time, that Newcastle had lost four of their last five games in all competitions, and that substitute Jacob Ramsey was sent off in stoppage time for two yellow cards 86 seconds apart. Newcastle’s head coach Matthias Jaissle, who took the job in August, said afterwards, in Sky’s account: “It feels at the moment that there’s not too much confidence.”

Then came the team news. On Thursday 5 November Jaissle told the club’s website that Joelinton is out of the Fulham game with a new injury: “Joelinton went out with an injury again, we need to make the final treatment plan for him and see how long he will be out.” Ramsey serves a one-match ban. Lewis Miley is still out, “getting better and better”, and Matias Fernandez-Pardo is back in training after more than two weeks with a virus but not confirmed fit. That is three or four midfielders missing. The feed moved very little on Thursday itself, so the market seems to have priced the mood on Monday and the absences only lightly after.

For Friday’s small last step, no public reason was found on an allowed source. Fulham’s own press conference with head coach Álvaro Arbeloa, appointed in July after Marco Silva left at the end of his contract, was published on the club’s website on Friday, but the page could not be read by this site. The licensed availability notes used here say Fulham’s Tom Cairney has a knee injury, added on Friday, with a return expected after the break. Fulham are 15th on nine points and unbeaten in their last three league games, with seven points from them, a run that began with a 1-0 win over Hull on 17 October; Newcastle are 13th on 11 points. The clubs’ last meeting was the final day of last season, when Fulham won 2-0 at Craven Cottage with goals from Issa Diop and Cairney, according to Sky Sports.

What it means

A fall of five percentage points for an away side in a week is a clear move, not noise, and the chart on this page shows that it came in one burst rather than a slow drift. It does not mean Newcastle cannot win on Saturday; a 27% chance is roughly one game in four. It means the people pricing the game think Newcastle a little less likely to win than they did a week ago, mainly because of what they saw on Monday night and the injuries confirmed since. The closing price, the last one the feed captures before kick-off, goes into this site’s record and is what Monday’s “what the market got wrong” piece will measure the result against.

18+. Gambling involves risk and can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly. Prices quoted were correct at the time stated and move. This article is information and opinion, not advice; no outcome is certain. Odds links go to BettingBeast. Help: Gamble Alert +234 916 295 7989.