England v Croatia on Thursday: Kane can pass Shilton's caps record, Guéhi out and Burn in, and a draw is enough
Kick-off 20:45 CET (19:45 UK) on Thursday 12 November. England are second in their Nations League group on nine points, three behind Spain, who they visit on Sunday. England won 7-0 in Croatia in October.
England play Croatia at Wembley on Thursday 12 November, kick-off 20:45 CET, which is 19:45 in London, in the fifth of six rounds of the Nations League group stage. England are second in Group 3 of League A, the competition’s top division, with nine points from four games; Spain lead with 12. The FA’s own note on the game says a draw is enough to take England into the quarter-finals. Harry Kane, who has 125 caps, the same as Peter Shilton, would become England’s most-capped men’s player by playing.
Why it matters
The Nations League is UEFA’s competition for national teams, played in the international windows between club rounds. The top two in each League A group go to home-and-away quarter-finals in March 2027, according to UEFA’s draw article. Sky Sports’ table, last updated at the end of October, has Spain on 12 points with four wins, England on nine with three wins and a defeat, Croatia on three with one win, and Czechia on none. England’s four results, from the FA’s fixtures page: a 2-3 defeat to Spain at Wembley on 26 September, a 2-0 win in Czechia on 29 September, a 7-0 win in Croatia at Rijeka on 3 October, and a 3-0 win over Czechia at Wembley on 6 October, when Kane scored twice after an own goal.
So England are already three points clear of Croatia with two games left, and the FA says one point on Thursday makes the top two certain. Finishing first is harder: the FA’s squad announcement said it would take two wins and a better goal difference than Spain, whom England visit in Madrid on Sunday 15 November, 20:45 CET, at Atlético’s stadium. ESPN reported on Monday that a Spanish win in Czechia on Thursday and a draw with England on Sunday would make Spain certain of top spot.
For Croatia the picture is the opposite. The 7-0 at Rijeka five weeks ago came in the fourth month of Slaven Bilić’s second spell in charge; he was appointed in July after Zlatko Dalić ended his time as coach following the World Cup, the Croatian federation said. “We are disappointed, this requires redemption,” the federation’s website quoted Bilić as saying after that game. Croatia then lost 1-2 to Spain in Split three days later. Any England point on Thursday puts the top two out of their reach, so in practice their two games, Wembley on Thursday and Czechia at home on Sunday, decide whether they finish third or bottom.
The week around it
Thursday’s other top-division games are Türkiye v Belgium at 18:00 CET, Italy v France in Milan at 20:45 CET, which has its own preview and a price piece on this site, and Czechia v Spain at 20:45 CET. Spain are without Lamine Yamal for the trip to Czechia: ESPN reported on Monday that he hurt his right knee in Barcelona’s win at Atlético on Sunday, is being treated in Barcelona, and that the aim is for him to rejoin the squad for the England game, with Mikel Oyarzabal also missing Thursday with flu. Friday brings Netherlands v Greece and Serbia v Germany; Saturday Portugal v Denmark and Norway v Wales.
Team news
England’s squad changed on Monday. The FA announced that Marc Guéhi had withdrawn with an injury and that Newcastle’s Dan Burn, who has 11 caps, had been called up in his place. ESPN reported that Guéhi was substituted at half-time in Manchester City’s defeat at Nottingham Forest on Saturday and that the injury ends his run of 15 England appearances in a row. The FA has not said what the injury is.
The rest of the 25 is as Thomas Tuchel named it on 6 November, as Sky Sports listed it: Pickford, Steele and Trafford in goal; Alexander-Arnold, Spence, White, Konsa, Quansah, Branthwaite and Hall in defence, with Burn now in Guéhi’s place; Anderson, Jude Bellingham, Lewis-Skelly, Garner, Rice, Josh King, Jobe Bellingham and Gibbs-White in midfield; Ngumoha, Calvert-Lewin, Kane, Eze, Gordon and Rogers in attack. Cole Palmer was left out, and Tuchel told Sky Sports that was “not personal”. Myles Lewis-Skelly is suspended for Thursday, Tuchel said in the FA’s interview on the day of the announcement, so he can play on Sunday but not against Croatia. Jobe Bellingham and Josh King are in a senior squad for the first time.
Kane’s record is the night’s other story. Sky Sports’ report on the Czechia game in October said his 125th cap matched Shilton’s record, which had stood for more than 36 years. The FA’s press-conference note before that game said his two goals in Rijeka were his 88th and 89th for England; he scored twice more against Czechia. One more appearance, on Thursday or Sunday, puts him on his own at the top of the list.
Croatia’s squad for this window was not on a source this site is allowed to read on Tuesday morning, so no Croatian names are given here beyond the coach. Luka Modrić captained Croatia in October, according to the federation’s website. No confirmed team news for either side as of 08:00 CET on Tuesday; the FA says its team news appears about 75 minutes before kick-off, so at about 19:30 CET on Thursday.
How to read the market
The market has not moved. At 06:23 CET on Tuesday BettingBeast’s feed had England at 1.27 to win, a 79% chance by the price, the draw at 7.02, a 14% chance, and Croatia at 12.66, an 8% chance; when the feed first carried the match at 21:22 CET on Thursday 5 November the three prices were 1.27, 6.25 and 12.63, so only the draw has drifted, by less than two points of chance. The handicap line gives Croatia a two-goal start, with England at 2.23 to win by three or more and Croatia at 1.73, and the goals line is 3.5, with over at 2.28 and under at 1.72. The card on this page carries the latest price with its capture time.
What to watch
The two meetings this autumn could hardly have been more different in the score and more alike in the shape: England scored four before half-time in Rijeka, and the market’s two-goal handicap says it expects a wide margin again. The FA’s head-to-head count is 13 games, eight England wins, three Croatia wins and two draws, and the three Croatian wins include the ones that mattered most, the World Cup semi-final in 2018 among them. The questions for Thursday are at the back rather than the front: Guéhi had played 15 England games in a row, ESPN said, and whoever takes his place does so a few days before a trip to Spain. A low-scoring England win looks more likely than the October score suggests, because Croatia under Bilić have every reason to sit deep, but that is a lean about the shape of the game, not a forecast.
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- England v Croatia, UEFA Nations League, Thursday 12 November 2026: match centre, The FA. Read 01:30 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
- England men's squads: updates from the November international window, The FA. Read 01:55 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
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- Bilić: We are disappointed, this requires redemption, Croatian Football Federation. Read 01:36 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
- Draw for the league phase of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, UEFA. Read 01:29 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
- Barcelona's Lamine Yamal to miss Spain's game in Czechia with knee injury, ESPN. Read 01:35 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
- BettingBeast football prices, captured by this site's odds job (data/odds-latest.json, capture 2026-11-10T05:23Z, and data/odds-series.json), BettingBeast via Match News. Read 01:30 ET, Nov 10, 2026.
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